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Ocean freight market rates continued to drop this year, falling by 51% (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) year-on-year with spot rates back to 2023 levels on many trades, according to DHL’s Ocean Freight Market September 2025 Update
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There is an expected slight rate increase in the fourth quarter that will be driven by the upcoming peak season, but lack of demand growth would subsequently again lead to a rate decline into 2026
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Uncertainties over US tariffs have been largely lifted as most rates are set, which are at highest levels since the 1930s—and this dampens but does not halt global trade
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There was a 7% YoY fleet growth in line with historical average
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There was strong market demand growth with a 9% year-to-date increase until May
Ocean freight market rates continued to drop this year, falling by 51% year-on-year (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) with spot rates back to 2023 levels on many trades, according to DHL’s September 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update.
The decline in spot rates reflect softer volumes and cautious carrier capacity management.
The report said there is an expected slight rate increase in the fourth quarter that will be driven by the upcoming peak season, but lack of demand growth would subsequently again lead to a rate decline into 2026.
The potential rate decline, the report noted, can be halted through aggressive carrier capacity management.
In the big picture, uncertainties over US tariffs have been largely lifted as most rates are set, which are at highest levels since the 1930s—and this dampens but does not halt global trade.
For most countries, all imports are subject to an approximate average of 18% duty, ranging from 10 to 50%, depending on the origin. However, there are some product-specific duties that apply instead, irrespective of the origin.
Discussions for some countries are still ongoing, most notably Mexico and China.
The uncertainty around tariffs has slowed global trade and the full impact on shipping and supply chains will unravel now that rates have come into effect globally.
READ: Ripple effects of US tariffs spreading across container shipping worldwide
There was a 7% YoY fleet growth in line with historical average, used to meet demand and demand spikes), next to partially covering capacity tied up during congestion and in Suez diversion, the report said.
As the nominal capacity continues to grow, effective capacity is still impacted by Suez diversion and port congestion around the world, particularly in Asia and Europe.
It noted that “orderbooks are full and growth ambitions appear steep in light of global trade headwinds.”
READ: DHL views 2025 ocean freight market with cautious optimism
In terms of market demand, there was strong growth with a 9% year-to-date (cumulative Jan-May 2025 volume vs. cumulative Jan-May 2024 volume) increase until May, but 2025 volumes are sequentially flat, driven by significant decline in Asia-North America volumes.
Demand development is in line with capacity, but US tariffs announced in April are impacting growth rates. Meanwhile, Asian exports are surging to other destinations such as the Middle East, North Africa, or Latin America.
