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Continued disruption and volatility in the air freight market are expected in the third quarter this year, according to the Air Freight Tracker for Q3 2025 from Ti Insight
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US tariff policy is still considered the main unsettling factor
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The report noted that as US tariff rates seem to have been set for most countries, what is becoming apparent is that capacity is overtaking demand
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Into the last quarter 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, Ti said “the narrative will depend less on seasonal uplift and more on how carriers choreograph capacity against uneven, policy-shaped demand”
Continued disruption and volatility in the air freight market are expected in the third quarter this year, with US tariff policy still considered the main unsettling factor, according to the Air Freight Tracker for Q3 2025 from Ti Insight.
The report noted that as US tariff rates seem to have been set for most countries, with the majority taking effect in July and August, what is becoming apparent is that capacity is overtaking demand as global trade flows affect the air freight market.
“It was inevitable that shippers would front load to beat tariff deadlines, and that once they had done so demand would quickly revert to muted levels. Short-lived spikes have passed, leaving a dampened peak-season in their wake,” said Ti, a UK-based logistics and supply chain market research and analysis company.
Consumer spending is also affecting demand as inflation rises and shoppers cut back on discretionary goods.
READ: Global air cargo volumes up 5% in July in runup to US tariffs adoption
Average global air freight rates per kilogram (kg) remained largely flat but with a consistent and gentle downward trend during 2025, where headhaul airfreight rates have fallen for seven out of the eight months into August, according to the Ti Insight rate tracker report. On global headhauls, prices averaged $2.82/kg in August 2025, down 4.5% against three months prior in May 2025.
On the capacity side, a rebound in passenger networks expanded belly-hold lift, while freighter redeployment between the Pacific and Europe distorted rate behavior.
For the last quarter of the year, carriers are expected to trim schedules without over correcting as oversupply problems are more than likely to persist.
Supply production across regions appear to be diverging such as a manufacturing growth in India against a slowdown in China – and it remains to be seen how the US tariffs that came into force in August will affect this .
In Asia, most countries are constrained by the US trade policy.
Europe, on the other hand, is showing hints of manufacturing growth, but consumer spending is weakening, which is a similar scenario in the US.
Looking into the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter of 2026, Ti said “the narrative will depend less on seasonal uplift and more on how carriers choreograph capacity against uneven, policy-shaped demand.”
READ: Global freight forwarding market to contract by 1.1% in 2025
