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Boeing expects air cargo traffic to double by 2043, based on the airline manufacturer’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast
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With the air cargo market soaring to pre-pandemic levels, the long-term growth will continue at an average of 4% per annum
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Expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce will drive growth
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Global air cargo fleet is expected to increase to 3,900 planes by 2043, a two-thirds hike from last year’s 2,340 freighters
Boeing expects air cargo traffic to double by 2043, based on the airline manufacturer’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF).
With the air cargo market soaring to pre-pandemic levels, long-term growth will continue at an average of 4% per annum from 2024 to 2043.
Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of commercial marketing, said: “As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend.”
Hulst added that there will be many drivers for continued freighter demand in the next 20 years, “including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce.”
The report noted: “Our forecast for the global air cargo industry is primarily driven by the projected growth of global real GDP, which is expected to increase 2.6% annually over
the next 20 years. South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, and Africa will lead this growth as their economies continue to develop and mature. Global trade and industrial production, also drivers of air cargo, are projected to grow 2.9% and 2.2% annually over the same period.”
It added that supply chain diversification is “another significant factor contributing to future air cargo growth.”
The Boeing report explained that the “rise of geopolitical risk and the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of single-source supply chains, including labor, shipping, and manufacturing constraints. In response, manufacturers have begun diversifying their operations and supply chains to other parts of Asia. Southeast Asian countries, for example, have significantly increased their industrial capabilities and global air exports since 2017 as a result of these shifts. Increasingly, multi-node supply chains will depend on air cargo for reliable and timely connectivity across different stages of the manufacturing process.”
Further boosting air cargo demand is the “growth of e-commerce and express networks.” The report said the “entry of new e-commerce market players significantly accelerated air cargo growth in the latter half of 2023 and into 2024, underscoring the importance of air cargo’s unmatched speed to serve the digital economy. Global e-commerce revenues are forecast to rise around 9% per year through 2029, with the fastest growth in the emerging markets of South Asia and Southeast Asia. Air cargo networks will play an essential role in this expansion.”
Meanwhile, WACF projects the global air cargo fleet to increase to 3,900 planes by 2043, a two-thirds hike from last year’s 2,340 freighters.
While many older jets are still in service due to recent market needs, almost half of production and conversion deliveries will replace retiring freighters with more fuel-efficient and more capable models.
It is the widebody freighter fleet that will nearly double, driven by the high-growth Asian markets’ demand.
The WACF said East and South Asian markets “will see the highest traffic growth per year, driven by expanding economies and consumer demand.”
The Asia-Pacific fleet is projected to nearly triple, and carriers there will need the most deliveries (at 980), followed closely by North America (955). The two regions will account for more than two-thirds of worldwide deliveries. Meanwhile, India’s domestic air cargo market will almost quadruple due to the country’s expanding express and e-commerce networks.
The WACF forecasts express carriers to serve one-fourth of the air cargo market, up from 18% in 2023.
The express carrier segment is seen to grow faster than the industry average due to its heightened role in e-commerce distribution, alongside the expansion of express networks in emerging markets.
By 2043, the express carrier traffic share would be 25%.
