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Supply chain disruptions will increase even further due to escalating trade tensions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, according to Charlie Villaseñor, chairman of the Procurement and Supply Institute of Asia
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ASEAN economies, including the Philippines, are vulnerable to supply chain realignments due to over-reliance on key exports like electronics
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Supply chain professionals are urged to recalibrate strategies to stay resilient amid shifting trade alliances
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Despite challenges, opportunities may arise from reshoring, regional cooperation, and foreign direct investment into less exposed economies
Supply chain disruptions will increase even further due to escalating trade tensions and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, according to Charlie Villaseñor, chairman of the Procurement and Supply Institute of Asia (PASIA), during an April 7 webinar on “Supply Chains Under Pressure: The Economic Impact of Geopolitical Uncertainty”.
US President Donald Trump recently caused a global scramble when he announced sweeping tariffs on majority of goods imported into the United Sates.
Villaseñor sees “hard bumps along the road in maybe two to three years, depending on the pace of the acceleration of the tariff trade and where it’s going.”
He cited as a primary supply chain disruptor the US-China tariff battle. “I call it supply chain wars, because they use supply chain to benefit themselves and to actually hit back into other countries as well.”
The Philippines, while not a major global exporter like Vietnam and Singapore, is still feeling the shockwaves—particularly in the electronics and semiconductor sectors, which make up a significant portion of export revenues, he said. “Our country, where we actually have something like 60 to 70% of semiconductors, is highly impacted.”
He noted that many “associated industries, from cafeteria to manpower to buses that bring people or employees around… are going to be impacted by the way things are looking right now.”
He also predicted “high vulnerability” among ASEAN countries.
“Many countries like Vietnam, Singapore, or even Malaysia and Indonesia that export more to the US are going to be susceptible to the impact of the tariff increases made by the US government. So winners of the global trade would be the ones that are not too exposed. But the ones going to be highly affected are countries like Vietnam and other ASEAN countries.”
The fact that the Philippines does not have an overall strong export industry has turned into an advantage, he noted.
Still, the country will not be able able to avoid negative effects of the tariff wars altogether. “What will happen if China cannot export well to the US, where do you think they’re going to send in that stuff at (a) very, very low price? They will send it to countries like the Philippines… How will they be affected? Production or manufacturing companies may be highly impacted because China produces at a much more competitive rate.”
Villaseñor stressed the need for supply chain professionals to shift from reactive to proactive strategies. “The good thing here is like more and more companies (that) want to expand their business are going to have more foreign direct investments triggered and targeted towards the ASEAN region. I feel it’s also going to become an opportunity. As (there’s) more and more pressure to become self-reliant, we in ASEAN will be able to do what’s good for us.”
Despite the bumps down the road, he sees ASEAN countries working together, “not by choice,” in particular leveraging on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Program, which advances free trade agreements among the participating countries. – Michael Barcas
