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A seasonal increase in ocean freight rates (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) is expected at the start of 2026 until the Chinese New Year in mid-February
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Rates will then soften until the first half, according to DHL’s January 2026 Ocean Freight Market Update
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For capacity, fleet growth is forecasted at 4% year-on-year, below the approximately 6% average annual increase over the last decade
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Effective capacity remains reduced as port congestion reaches two-year high and the Suez detour continues
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On the demand side, a 4% year-to-date growth was recorded from January to October 2025, driven by volume surge on secondary trades out of Asia
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Overall demand growth is positive as global trade patterns shift and diversify following uncertainties and disruption caused by US tariffs
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Stable Suez services would not be in place earlier than mid-2026 “in best-case scenario,” according to DHL
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The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme will cover 100% of emissions by this year, which means ETS charges for shipments into and out of Europe will increase by another 35-50%
A seasonal increase in ocean freight rates (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) is expected at the start of 2026 until the Chinese New Year in mid-February, then soften until the first half, according to DHL’s January 2026 Ocean Freight Market Update.
For the whole year, rates are seen to remain steady within the range of the second half of 2025, during which prices recovered in the fourth quarter from a record low in the third quarter.
“Futures predict 2026 rates to stay near late-2025 levels, barring geopolitical shocks,” DHL said.
READ: Ocean freight rates continue to recover from Q3 low
For capacity, fleet growth is forecasted at 4% year-on-year, which is below the approximately 6% average annual increase over the last decade.
The DHL report said effective capacity remains reduced as port congestion reaches a two-year high and the Suez detour continues.
The recent spike in port congestion to almost three million TEU is due to various factors, including infrastructure, weather disturbances, and labor issues.
Orderbooks, meanwhile, are full as carriers aim to replace less fuel-efficient vessels and push for higher market share.
Most top carriers have orderbooks for the next 4-5 years in range of 30-50% of their current fleet. The exceptions include Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd with comparatively small orderbook given the fleet modernization progress they have made already.
On the demand side, a 4% year-to-date growth was recorded from January to October 2025, driven by volume surge on secondary trades out of Asia.
Sustained demand around the world is expected into Chinese New Year and onwards to the rest of the year, DHL said.
Overall demand growth is positive as global trade patterns shift and diversify following uncertainties and disruption caused by US tariffs.
Asian exports, in particular, are surging to worldwide destinations, especially the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, and Africa.
The anticipated reopening of the Suez Canal route could further boost demand in the Asia-Europe trade land as shorter transit times make ocean shipping more attractive.
Carriers are still testing waters and evaluating the risks and safety for seafarers, vessels, cargo – and will wait until Houthi attacks have reliably stopped.
Once reopened, a return to Suez canal would initially cause multiple months of reshuffling, disruption and congestion.
Stable Suez services would not be in place earlier than mid-2026, “in best-case scenario,” according to DHL.
Another factor that will affect sea cargo this year is the European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which will cover 100% of emissions by 2026.
This means for shipments into and out of Europe, ETS charges will increase by another 35-50%, making low emission shipping an attractive alternative.
