-
Global air cargo demand rose 11.2% year-on-year in February 2026, outpacing capacity growth and signaling continued strength in international trade flows, according to the International Air Transport Association
-
Capacity grew 8.5% year-on-year (international: +9.8%), with the cargo load factor reaching 46.0%, up 1.1 percentage points
-
Growth was partly boosted by pre-Lunar New Year cargo movement, but IATA director general Willie Walsh warned the Middle East war erupting at month’s end clouds the full-year outlook
-
Key demand drivers: global goods trade grew 5.2% year-on-year in January; manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in February; new export orders PMI hit 51.4, highest since July 2021
-
Jet fuel prices rose 1.2% year-on-year in February
Global air cargo demand rose 11.2% year-on-year in February 2026, outpacing capacity growth and signaling continued strength in international trade flows, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA data released March 30 showed total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, grew 11.2% compared to February 2025, with international operations up 11.6%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers, expanded 8.5% overall and 9.8% for international operations, pushing the global cargo load factor to 46.0% — a gain of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year.
READ: Global air cargo demand rises 5.6% in January
IATA director general Willie Walsh acknowledged the robust headline numbers but flagged the sharp deterioration in the operating environment that emerged as February drew to a close.
“Air cargo demand grew 11.2% in February. Even considering the boost that February received from the movement of goods ahead of Lunar New Year, the month showed strong growth. The outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of the month, however, makes it difficult to see how full-year performance will unfold. Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts. While air cargo has repeatedly proven its resilience in the face of disruption, an early resolution of the war along with a normalization of fuel supply and costs would be in everybody’s interest,” Walsh said in a statement.
The February data captured a still-favorable operating environment before the war’s full impact set in. Global goods trade grew 5.2% year-on-year in January.
The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.1 in February, well above the 50-point growth threshold, while the PMI for new export orders increased to 51.4 — its highest level since July 2021 — indicating strong underlying conditions for air freight demand.
Jet fuel prices rose a comparatively modest 1.2% year-on-year in February, though a widening Brent-jet fuel crack spread flagged growing volatility in refining margins that would intensify in subsequent weeks.
Regional performance
Africa posted the strongest regional growth for the month, with air cargo demand surging 21.0% year-on-year and capacity rising 17.3%, though the region accounts for just 2.1% of global cargo traffic. Middle Eastern carriers delivered the second-fastest demand growth at 16.5% — with capacity up 13.5% — reflecting the corridor’s central role in connecting Asia, Europe, and the Gulf before hostilities disrupted key hubs.
Asia-Pacific carriers, which account for the largest share of global cargo traffic at 36.0%, saw demand grow 13.6% with capacity up 10.1%. North American carriers posted a 9.4% demand increase against a 5.3% rise in capacity — the tightest supply-demand gap among major regions, pushing their cargo load factor to 41.1% with a 1.5 percentage point year-on-year gain. European carriers grew demand by 6.9% against a 6.1% capacity increase, achieving the highest load factor of any region at 59.1%.
Latin America and the Caribbean was the clear laggard, with demand up just 0.7% against a 4.5% capacity increase — resulting in a 1.3 percentage point decline in load factor to 35.2%, the lowest of all regions.
Trade lane growth
Air freight volumes expanded across all major trade corridors in February, with Africa-Asia leading the field at a remarkable 61.9% year-on-year surge — its eighth consecutive month of growth — though the lane represents just 1.3% of global cargo traffic.
Middle East-Asia, a strategically critical corridor now under strain from the war, grew 24.0% in February — its 12th straight month of expansion — with a 7.4% share of global traffic. Europe-Asia, the second-largest trade lane at 21.5% of global traffic, grew 13.1% and extended its run of consecutive growth to 36 months.
Asia-North America, the single-largest corridor at 23.4% of global market share, expanded by 9.1%, resuming growth after a one-month pause. Europe-North America, accounting for 13.5% of global traffic, grew 5.7% for its 25th consecutive month of expansion.
The Europe-Middle East lane grew 9.3%, recording its second straight month of positive growth, while intra-Asian traffic rose 9.1% for a 28th consecutive month of gain.
