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The escalating conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran will prolong transit times of vessels and lead to additional costs, according to the Association of International Shipping Lines, Inc.
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AISL president Patrick Ronas said the rerouting of major carriers to Cape of Good Hope adds transit times
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Aside from delays, Ronas said the escalating conflict will entail additional costs for carriers in terms of fuel, and insurance costs, among others
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Some carriers have also already announced the imposition of war risk or emergency conflict surcharge
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The situation affects the opportunities for Philippine exporters to the region with the recent signing of an economic partnership with the United Arab Emirates
The escalating conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 will prolong transit times of vessels and lead to additional costs, according to the Association of International Shipping Lines, Inc. (AISL).
AISL president Patrick Ronas, in a Viber message to PortCalls, said carriers in transit through the Red Sea have been advised to make a u-turn or take cover as hostilities continue.
He said this will make major carriers go back to transiting through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, which adds 10 to 14 days of transit time.
Major carriers such as MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have earlier announced suspension of certain cargo acceptance and new bookings in the Middle East, noting the prioritization of crew and vessel safety as well as adjustments being undertaken as they monitor developments in the Arabian Peninsula.
MSC has instructed all vessels currently operating in the Gulf region, as well as those en route to the area, to proceed to designated safe shelter areas until further notice.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also suspended transits through the Hormuz Strait and the Red Sea, and re-routing to Cape of Good Hope.
Maesk has paused reefer, dangerous/special cargo acceptance in and out of UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia until further notice, and suspended all new bookings between the India Subcontinent and the Upper Gulf markets. CMA CGM also stopped all reefer, dangerous goods/hazardous bookings until further notice for various Middle East countries.
MSC, meanwhile, paused all bookings for worldwide cargo to the Middle East region until further notice.
READ: Global logistics face major disruption as Middle East crisis escalates
Ronas said for cargo movement to and from Europe, carriers will revert to the longer transit and therefore delays should be expected “in incoming cargo should they be in the water.”
“What is damaging is for our exporters, some lines have started sending notices that they will not be accepting any cargo to the Middle East. It is a pity since we recently signed up a CEPA [comprehensive economic partnership agreement] with UAE [United Arab Emirates],” Ronas pointed out.
The CEPA – the Philippines’ first free trade deal in the Middle East – was signed on January 13, 2026, providing about 95% of Philippine exports to the UAE with preferential tariff treatment, helping manufacturers expand exports, scale up production, and generate more jobs at home.
READ: PH exporters eager to reap benefits of trade deal with UAE
“And as the airports are closed in the area, moving cargo through air will stop,” he added.
READ: Asia-Europe air freight capacity, prices strained by airspace curbs
He noted that major carriers in the past few weeks have just resumed trips through the Red Sea after years of avoiding the major shipping lane due to attacks by Houthi militant rebels on commercial vessels, which started in 2023 after Israel’s offensive in the Gaza Strip triggered by the October 7 attack in southern Israel of Palestinian militant group Hamas.
The attacks have forced various shipping companies to suspend ship traffic through the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden, a major shipping route, and have been diverting some of their vessels to a longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope.
Aside from delays, Ronas said the escalating conflict in the Middle East will entail additional costs for carriers in terms of fuel, and insurance costs, among others.
Global oil prices have shot up on March 2 and 3.
Some carriers have also already announced the imposition of war risk or emergency conflict surcharge.
Business groups such as the Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (PHILEXPORT) already expected such delays and added costs.
PHILEXPORT in an earlier statement noted that past tensions in the region have already led to higher freight and security surcharges and could again constrain trade flows and tourism, further dampening demand in major export destinations.
READ: Business groups ask gov’t to help minimize Middle East crisis impact
For the Philippines, a net oil-importing economy, PHILEXPORT pointed out that higher fuel costs will also directly raise production, transport, and logistics expenses for exporters, eroding price competitiveness in key markets.
Export sectors such as electronics, garments, processed food, and furniture may face increased shipping rates, insurance premiums, and longer transit times as vessels are rerouted or disrupted. – Roumina Pablo
