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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations holds big potential as both producer and user of sustainable aviation fuel by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report
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Member economies of the regional grouping could generate as much as 8.5 million barrels/day of SAF
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Demand in the region will grow sharply from 15,000 barrels/day in 2030 to over 700,000 barrels/day by 2050
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Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production
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Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines may have the most cost-efficient distribution for markets in Japan, Singapore and South Korea
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Largest SAF demands in the region are expected to come from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand
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Key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues
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To fully realize the potential, ASEAN neighbors need to work together to scale up production capacity, use cost-effective technologies, and establish regional trade and market frameworks
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) holds big potential as both producer and user of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050, according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report.
The report provides a regional supply chain assessment for 2030, 2040, and 2050, examining potential SAF supply and demand scenarios across Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam, as well as import markets including Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.
Member economies of the regional grouping could generate as much as 8.5 million barrels per day of SAF, a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel that meets sustainability criteria, reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and is compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure as a “drop-in” fuel.
ASEAN’s key SAF feedstocks include used cooking oil, rice waste, cassava waste, and forestry residues.
According to the report, all the ASEAN countries examined could potentially have sufficient capacity to position themselves as net SAF exporters. Viet Nam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand have the most abundant feedstock to support SAF production.
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Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, may have the most cost-efficient distribution for markets in Japan, Singapore and South Korea.
In addition to exports, the ASEAN region itself is forecasted to become a significant market for SAF.
The report projects that SAF demand in the region will grow sharply from 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to over 700,000 barrels per day by 2050.
The largest SAF demands are expected to come from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.
“The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook confirms our region’s strong comparative advantage on the supply side, particularly in the availability of sustainable bio-feedstocks. At the same time, rising regional and global demand for sustainable aviation fuel presents a clear market opportunity for ASEAN,” Satvinder Singh, deputy secretary-general for the ASEAN Economic Community, said in a news release.
The report also examined different ways of producing SAF and noted two promising options.
Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) is the most prevalent technology for producing SAF today, costing about twice as much as jet fuel, with the largest cost contributor being feedstock.
Alternative Gasification/Fisher-Tropsch (Gasification + FT), and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) pathways could be 4-7 times more expensive, but this gap is expected to reduce as technologies mature and scale up.
“To fully capitalise on both demand and supply dynamics, ASEAN Member States should work together to scale up production capacity, deploy cost-effective technologies, and establish robust regional trade and market frameworks,” Singh said.
“By efficiently matching our abundant agricultural resources with growing SAF demand, ASEAN can position itself not only as a self-sufficient and competitive sustainable aviation hub, but also as a reliable energy supplier supporting the decarbonisation of the broader Asia-Pacific aviation and energy markets,” he added.
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Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability lead for Southeast Asia said, “Southeast Asia’s commercial aviation industry is growing rapidly to serve the region’s expanding economies and meet demand from passengers and for air cargo. In addition to adding more fuel-efficient airplanes to the fleet, increasing Southeast Asia’s supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel will further enable responsible growth.”
Boeing was the knowledge partner for the report, which was developed by GHD through funding support from Global Affairs Canada from the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development (CTIF) implemented by Cowater International (Cowater) in association with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada (IPAC) and Global Affairs Canada.
Sachin Narang, GHD’s executive advisor for Energy and Infrastructure, said, “We are at an exciting juncture with respect to SAF because ASEAN has an abundance of agricultural and forestry waste that could serve as low-cost feedstock, narrowing the premium between HEFA-derived SAF and jet fuel. At the same time, policy intervention, overall targeted interventions, scaling, and innovation can narrow the cost gap for alternative SAF pathways over the medium to long term.”
