Two surveys released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas just before Christmas recently caught my attention.
The first was the latest edition of the BSP’s Consumer Expectations Report, done quarterly to monitor sentiments on the economy. It showed consumer confidence falling from -9.8 percent in the third quarter of 2025, to -22.2 percent in the fourth quarter – the lowest such score since the height of the pandemic, when the index showed a -24% score in the final quarter of 2021. The BSP attributes this current drop to ongoing concerns about corruption in government, as well as higher inflation reducing spending power.
While consumers generally remained optimistic about their prospects for the next twelve months, the number of those who see better things ahead slipped to 11.8% from 14.1%. This indicates continuing uncertainty over whether consumers and families can continue supporting their needs with their current incomes.
On the other hand, the latest edition of the BSP’s Business Expectations Report shows a different picture. Business confidence went up, from 23.2% in the third quarter of this year, to 29.7% in the current quarter. The BSP cites expected increased spending over the holiday period and planned business expansion as the main drivers of this optimism. However, business confidence in their prospects for the next twelve months dropped from 49.5% to 23.7%, driven by concerns over inflation (and reduced spending) as well as reduced investor confidence due to corruption in government.
While there are similarities in the two reports, I found it striking how consumers see things one way, while businesses see another. It’s not anyone’s fault. Consumers tend to be concerned with the present, with making the most of their income not just to feed their families, but to give them a shot at a dignified life, rather than being stuck in survival mode. Businesses, however, are armed with forecasts, plans and analytics, as well as the freedom (or the necessity) to look at the broader picture and towards the future. Quite a disconnect for two groups that should be working together.
Ideally, these two perspectives should be bridged. Businesses, of course, should keep customers first, although I appreciate how difficult it can be to juggle their preferences and interests (take how more active consumers are becoming when it comes to sustainability and against greenwashing) against the wellbeing of the company, its employees and its shareholders. But consumers would be more empowered if they can better understand the decisions businesses make in delivering the products they patronize, as well as the factors that determine how a product looks, feels and, most importantly, costs. The web may be complex, but it doesn’t mean it is entirely impenetrable.
I have been reflecting on the past year for us at SCMAP, where we once again took a key role not just in moving the Philippine supply chain sector, but also, one hopes, being an important bridge between consumers and businesses. We have seen multiple challenges this year: a string of natural calamities, including particularly destructive typhoons; infrastructure limitations resulting in disruptions such as the aborted rehabilitation of EDSA and the troubles at the San Juanico bridge; geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, affecting oil prices and, therefore, logistics costs. And then, of course, there’s the continuing dampening of confidence due to revelations of corruption in the highest levels of government, revelations that disappoint us, our members, and our customers. All these make for a complex web of factors and considerations, and to advocate for the supply chain sector, I feel it is important that we are also able to explain some of this to our customers, to empower them, to help them make smarter decisions.
This was coupled by strengthened collaboration with stakeholders in government and industry, particularly through the Section G retail job blueprint and the development of the Department of Trade and Industry’s Supply Chain and Logistics Center; the renewed focus on training through the launch of our Supply Chain Masterclass series alongside our certificate course with the De La Salle University and our role in the national industry TVET board on logistics; and providing a venue for networking and discussion of trends, through our own events as well as others held outside of the country. We have also been privileged to represent the country in at least two international fora on regional supply chains organized under the auspices of APEC.
And yet, as much as we’d like to see this as another banner year, the challenges continue, and we have to continue stepping up to the challenges, finding ways to connect and deliver, to lower costs and improve service, to keep consumers satisfied and empowered. If 2025 is any indication, 2026 will be just as challenging, and we hope to have your continued support in the coming year. There’s no telling with utmost clarity what lies ahead – but we will try to navigate it with you, and for you.
As I wrap up my final column for the year, may you have had a meaningful Christmas, and may we all have a profitable new year ahead of us.
Henrik Batallones is the marketing and communications director of SCMAP, and editor-in-chief of its official publication, Supply Chain Philippines. More information about SCMAP is available at scmap.org.
