BY AMIT MAHESHWARI
It is January — Chinese New Year (CNY) lands on February 17. The logistics window is closing fast.
If your cargo is not booked, you are fighting for scraps. If it is booked, you are fighting for space on the truck and the terminal.
We see this cycle every year. Yet, 2026 has specific friction points you need to manage right now. The Red Sea diversions are now the “old normal,” but the ripple effects on equipment availability in Asia are fresh.
Here is the operational reality for the next three weeks.
What Is Happening
The Pre-Holiday Rush is Peaking
Factories in China are rushing final orders out. Demand is surging on Intra-Asia and Asia-GCC lanes. Space on vessels departing Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen is critical.
Port Congestion Returns
Manila is feeling the pressure.
* Manila International Container Terminal (MICT) & South Harbor: Vessel waiting times are currently hitting 2 to 3 days.
* Regional Hubs: Singapore and Port Klang are clogged. This matters because your transshipment cargo will sit there longer, missing connecting feeders to Manila or Cebu.
* Equipment Shortage: 40-foot High Cubes are scarce in key Chinese depots.
China Trucking Capacity is Dropping.
Drivers in China are beginning their migration home (Chunyun). Trucking capacity in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is dropping daily. Spot trucking rates in China are climbing.
Why It Matters For You
Your “ETA” Is Not Your Delivery Date
A vessel arriving in Manila on February 10 does not mean goods in your warehouse by February 12. With 3-day berth waits and road congestion, that cargo might clear Customs right when Philippine brokers slow down for our own holidays or weekends.
Detention Bills Will Spike
Congestion consumes free time. If your container sits in Singapore for 7 days waiting for a feeder, that is carrier time. But if it sits in Manila because you cannot get a truck or a gate pass due to volume spikes, that is on your account.
Rolled Cargo Risk
Carriers are prioritizing high-yield freight. If you are shipping on low-tier contract rates without volume commitments, your containers are the first to get “rolled” (bumped) to the next sailing. A roll now means missing the pre-CNY departure entirely.
What You Should Watch
- Feeder Connections
Watch your transshipment hubs. Cargo from Europe or the GCC transshipping via Singapore or Hong Kong is vulnerable. If the mother vessel arrives late, the feeder connection is missed. The next feeder might be blanked (cancelled) due to the holiday.
- Manila Reefers
MICT reefer plugs are tight. If you are importing perishables, verify your broker has pre-cleared as much paperwork as possible. You cannot afford to have a reefer sitting unplugged or racking up monitoring charges.
- The “Ghost” Sailing
Carriers often announce blank sailings after the holiday, but operational cuts start now. Watch for vessel slide announcements. A ship scheduled for Jan 28 might slide to Jan 30. If your export docs aren’t ready for the new cutoff, you miss the gate.
- Customs Systems
In the Philippines, E-TRACC and other Bureau of Customs systems slow down under heavy volume. Expect system sluggishness. File entries the moment the manifest is available. Do not wait for vessel arrival.
What To Avoid
Relying on Spot Trucking in China
Do not assume you can book a truck in Ningbo or Shenzhen 24 hours before closing. Book it now. Drivers are leaving. If you miss the trucker, you miss the vessel.
Ignoring “Free Time” Expiry
Check your detention free time. With port congestion in Manila, standard free time (5-7 days) is often insufficient. Request extended free time before the booking is confirmed, not when the container is already on the water.
Thinking “GCC is Safe”
Freight from Dubai/Jebel Ali to Asia is competing for empty equipment. The equipment imbalance means carriers prefer sending empties back to China to capture high export rates to the US/EU. Your GCC-to-Manila shipment is a lower priority for them. Secure your equipment early.
The Bottom Line
The next 20 days are about defense. Secure your slots, track your transshipments daily, and clear customs aggressively.
PREVIOUS COLUMN: 2026 Is Not About Growth. It’s About Control
Amit Maheshwari is the CEO of Softlink Global. He built Logi-Sys, a freight platform now used in over 50 countries. With 30 years in the industry, he focuses on fixing operational bottlenecks through software. He writes “IT in Logistics” for PortCalls to cut through the tech hype and address the reality of moving cargo.
