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Average container freight rates for Chinese exports have dropped 28% since the start of the year, the worst first quarter development in 20 years
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The 28% fall reduced the China Containerized Freight Index from 1,548 at the beginning of the year to 1,112 at the end of the first quarter
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The rates have fallen despite what looked like a promising start to the year with export market volumes from East and Southeast Asia growing 20% year-on-year in January
Average container freight rates for Chinese exports have dropped 28% since the start of the year, according to BIMCO. This is the worst first quarter development in 20 years.
The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) reflects the general export freight rate level from 10 major ports, based on inputs from 23 liner operators.
The 28% fall reduced the CCFI from 1,548 at the beginning of the year to 1,112 at the end of the first quarter, mainly due to a record high fall in spot freight rates.
Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, in a statement said: “Since 2006, the CCFI has on average only fallen 2% during the first quarter and has only declined more than 10% four times. The second worst year was 2023 when average rates fell 24% between the start and end of the first quarter.”
The SCFI that measures spot rates for Shanghai exports has fallen 46% since the start of 2025, the largest first quarter fall since the SCFI began in late 2009.
The rates have fallen despite what looked like a promising start to the year with export market volumes from East and Southeast Asia growing 20% year-on-year in January. Also, rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope continues to absorb 10% to 12% of the fleet’s capacity.
The trades to Europe and Mediterranean have suffered the biggest drop in average rates since the beginning of the year of 33% and 32% respectively.
Meanwhile, the north-south trades have seen the largest rate reductions with rates to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America and West Africa falling 40%, 38%, 35% and 26% respectively.
Average rates in the trade between China and Japan are the only ones not to have fallen.
Despite the adverse development, average rates ended the first quarter only 8% lower than a year ago while remaining 39% higher than in 2019.
It should be noted that the Trump administration’s focus on raising US import tariffs has increased trade uncertainty to levels not seen in recent years. The tariff increases not only hurt trade into the US directly but also global trade indirectly as US trading partners retaliate and global economic growth could decrease.
“As the container ship fleet’s capacity is expected to grow 5.4% during 2025, freight rates can be expected to remain lower than in 2024. Should volume growth falter and ships return to normal routings in the Red Sea area, 2019 levels may soon be within sight,” said Rasmussen.
BIMCO stands for the Baltic and International Maritime Council, a global trade association for shipowners, ship operators, shipping brokers and other stakeholders in the global maritime industry. It was founded in 1905 in Copenhagen.
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