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Air and ocean freight is expected to see a modest boost in demand in February with the celebration of Chinese New Year, according to the latest Freight Market Insights from Dimerco’s Asia-Pacific Report
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Other than the seasonal uplift, global cargo demand is seen easing as consumers and businesses stay cautious amid continued geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
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Overall freight rates are relatively stable
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Intra-Asia demand remains robust
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North America and Europe are seeing disruptions in cargo movement due to extreme winter weather conditions
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In the Philippines, freight rates for both air and ocean cargo are expected to be stable for all routes with capacity at an upturn except within Asia, where it will be soft
Air and ocean freight is expected to see a modest boost in demand in February with the celebration of Chinese New Year, according to the latest Freight Market Insights from Dimerco’s Asia-Pacific Report
Other than the seasonal uplift, which will be particularly felt in within Asia and Asia lanes to the United States and Europe, global cargo demand is seen easing as consumers and businesses stay cautious amid continued geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
“Global manufacturing ended 2025 on a softer note, with the Global Manufacturing PMI at around 50.5 in December, showing only slight growth as output slowed and new orders stayed weak. This was one of the weaker readings in the second half of the year, suggesting demand and business confidence remain cautious going into 2026,” the Dimerco report said.
For air freight, volumes within Asia remain robust with space tightening ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February. Demand will normalize post-holiday, which will keep rates steady.
“Intra-Asia demand is still holding up well versus last year, even though it’s below the Q4 peak. With Chinese New Year approaching, we expect space to tighten, especially on China-to-Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, India, and Thailand routes,” said Kathy Liu , Dimerco Express Group vice president for Global Sales and Marketing.
Ocean freight rates have also been stable mainly through a combination of GRIs and capacity control rather than demand recovery.
“The market appears to be avoiding a rate war, as carriers recognize that aggressive price competition would benefit no one and recent attempts to push rates higher since January 1 have largely failed,” the report said.
Blank sailings have been concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound Lane, signaling cautious carrier sentiment.
Meanwhile, carriers will have to strengthen capacity management with the scheduled delivery of new vessels this year.
“With more new vessels entering the market in 2026, carriers will need disciplined capacity management to prevent oversupply and avoid another rate war,” said Ted Chen, Dimerco Express Group director for Ocean Freight Global Sales and Marketing.
Across regions, North America and Europe are seeing disruptions in cargo movement due to extreme winter weather conditions, which may persist in February.
In Europe, other factors affecting the cargo market include labor strikes in the air industry and the full implementation of the European Union Environmental Tariff System for intra-Europe ocean shipments, which are weighing on costs as well as reliability.
In South America, shipments in Mexico are particularly slowing down amid new tariffs and stricter documentation requirements.
In the Philippines, freight rates for both air and ocean cargo are expected to be stable for all routes – Asia, Europe, and the US east and west coasts – with capacity at an upturn except within Asia, where it will be soft.
A pre-holiday rush is expected in air freight as shippers rush to move cargo out before the holiday break. This would mean higher rates and tight capacity.
Ocean freight rates are similarly expected to peak in the first two weeks of February before taking a slight dip toward the end of the month.
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