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Global air cargo demand rose by 2.9% year on year in September 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth, according to the International Air Transport Association
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Capacity increased by 3.0% compared to September 2024 and 4.4% for international operations
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Growth was driven by shifting trade patterns: strong gains within Asia and from Asia to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, while North America-Asia demand declined, according to IATA director general Willie Walsh
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Walsh cited US tariff shifts, including the end of de minimis exemptions, as reshaping global trade flows
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Global goods trade rose 7% in August; jet fuel prices climbed 5.4% in September despite lower oil prices
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Manufacturing sentiment improved, with the PMI reaching 51.3, though export orders remained below the expansion threshold
Global air cargo demand rose by 2.9% year on year in September 2025, continuing a seven-month growth streak even as global trade patterns shift and economic uncertainties linger, based on the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The total demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), rose by 2.9% compared to September 2024 levels (+3.2% for international operations).
Capacity, measured in available CTK, expanded by 3.0% in the same period (+4.4% for international operations).
“Buried in that growth is a significant alteration of trade patterns as US tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions, kick in. On one side of the equation, a decline in North America-Asia demand has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a press release.
READ: US scraps almost century-old tariff exemption for low value imports
“While many had feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands,” he noted.
World trade grew 3.7% YoY, and air cargo demand, in seasonally adjusted terms, followed a similar trend with a 3.8% YoY increase, according to IATA.
The operating environment for air cargo in September was shaped by several key indicators. Global goods trade rose 7% year-on-year in August. Jet fuel prices climbed 5.4% despite lower oil benchmarks, driven by a tighter diesel market that doubled the crack spread compared to last year.
Also, manufacturing sentiment improved, with the global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising for a second consecutive month to 51.3. However, new export orders edged up to 49.6, remaining below the 50-point threshold, suggesting continued caution amid shifting tariff policies.
Regional performance varied.
Asia-Pacific carriers posted a 6.8% increase in demand, while African airlines led all regions with a 14.7% surge. European carriers saw a 2.5% rise, and Middle Eastern airlines recorded a modest 0.6% gain.
In contrast, North American and Latin American carriers saw declines of 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively.
Trade lane data showed robust growth in Europe-Asia (12.4%) and Within-Asia corridors (10.0%), with additional gains on Middle East-Asia (4.6%), North America-Europe (2.6%), and Africa-Asia routes (9.6%). However, volumes fell on Asia-North America (-3.5%), Middle East-Europe (-4.6%), and Within-Europe lanes (-1.1%).
