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Global e-commerce logistics market expanded 45.5% to €582 billion in 2025 compared to €400 billion 2022, according to research and analysis firm Ti Insight
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Steady growth, though slower at mid-single-digit rate, is expected to continue until 2030
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Domestic e-commerce logistics increased to €486B in 2025, up 44% from €336.7B in 2022
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Cross-border e-commerce logistics rose to €96.1B, up 52% from €63.3B
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In the United States, however, cross-border flow “likely faced a structural headwind” in late 2025 following the removal of the $800 de minimis threshold in August
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Similar structural changes on low-value imports across the European Union are expected by mid 2026
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Over the next five years, the domestic e-commerce segment is seen to continue accounting for about 83–84% of total market value
The global e-commerce logistics market expanded 45.5% to €582 billion in 2025 compared to 2022 data, and steady growth is expected to continue until 2030, according to research and analysis firm Ti Insight.
In its recent paper titled Cross-Border E-commerce Forecasts for a Post-de Minimis World, Ti Insights said both cross-border and domestic e-commerce are forecast to expand over the next four years at a mid-single-digit rate, which is slower than in the past four years.
Domestic e-commerce logistics increased to €486 billion in 2025, representing growth of about 44% from €336.7 billion in 2022. Over this period, the domestic segment accounted for about 84-85% of total market value.
Cross-border e-commerce logistics, meanwhile, rose to €96.1 billion, up 52% from €63.3 billion in the same period.
“While smaller in absolute terms, cross-border expanded at a faster rate than domestic, indicating increasing internationalization of online retail demand,” Ti Insights noted.
However, in the case of the United States, the biggest import market, cross-border flow “likely faced a structural headwind” in late 2025 following the removal of the $800 de minimis threshold in August. This policy change increased duties, compliance costs and customs friction for low-value imports, particularly impacting high-volume parcel flows from Asia.
By mid-2026, similar structural changes across the European Union (EU) are expected.
“Mirroring the US, the EU is also moving to tighten controls on low-value imports, with reforms tocustoms rules expected to remove simplified treatment for small consignments and increase compliance requirements, creating additional friction for cross-border parcel flows into the bloc,” Ti Insights said.
“However, the ultimate impact of these structural policy changes on cross-border parcel volumes and growth rates remains uncertain, as higher compliance costs and customs friction may either suppress low-value trade or accelerate shifts toward regional fulfilment and nearshoring models,” it added.
READ: Global e-commerce logistics market set to soar in 2025
For this year, domestic logistics is projected to increase to €516.2 billion and reach €653.4 billion by 2030.
Cross-border flows, on the other hand, are expected to rise to €101.8bn in 2026 and €129.4bn by 2030, representing a broadly similar growth trajectory.
The domestic segment will continue to account for approximately 83–84% of total market value, indicating that international flows are expanding largely in line with domestic demand rather than materially increasing their structural share of the overall market, according to the UK-based company specializing in logistics and supply chain market research.
However, the higher growth rate in cross-border flows points to continued investment in international fulfilment networks, customs capability, and cross-border last-mile infrastructure.
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