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Global trade projected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, according to UN Trade and Development’s year-end Global Trade Update
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Trade expanded even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven demand slowed momentum
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Trade expected to grow 7% this year, adding $2.2 trillion
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East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade are the strongest drivers of gains
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Manufacturing, especially electronics with a 14% growth, remains the main engine; automotive and fossil fuels lag
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Goods trade grew 2% while services at 4% in Q3 2025; Q4 growth expected at 0.5% for goods, 2% for services
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Expansion now driven by higher volumes rather than prices, signaling stable demand as inflation eases
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UNCTAD expects slower growth in 2026 due to rising debt, higher costs, and global uncertainty
Global trade is on course to surpass a record $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) year-end Global Trade Update.
The report shows trade expanding through the second half of the year, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven demand slowed momentum, UNCTAD said in news release.
The UN agency said global trade is expected to grow about 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion.
East Asia, Africa, and South–South trade were the strongest drivers of gains, with manufacturing, particularly electronics, remaining the main engine of growth. Energy and automotive sectors, however, lagged behind.
UNCTAD said global trade continued to expand between July and September, growing 2.5% from the previous quarter. Goods trade increased nearly 2% while services rose 4%.
Growth is expected to persist in the final quarter, though at a more moderate pace – 0.5% for goods and 2% for services. If projections hold, goods would add around $1.5 trillion to 2025’s total and services roughly $750 billion.
The trade body said a notable shift emerged in trade pricing trends. After two quarters in which rising goods prices partly inflated trade values, prices are now expected to decline. UNCTAD said this means the trade expansion in late 2025 is driven primarily by higher shipment volumes rather than price increases, indicating stable underlying demand as inflation cools.
East Asia recorded the fastest export growth at 9%, supported by a 10% jump in intra-regional flows. Africa also posted strong activity, with imports up 10% and exports rising 6%.
South–South trade expanded about 8%, underscoring deeper commercial ties among developing economies. China and the Republic of Korea were among East Asia’s top performers, while Brazil and South Africa helped drive gains in South America and Africa.
Manufacturing remained the main engine of global trade, expanding 10% on the back of a 14% surge in electronics linked to AI-related demand.
Agriculture posted strong third-quarter gains, with cereals and fruit-and-vegetable exports up 11%. Automotive trade contracted 4%, while fossil-fuel trade declined amid lower prices.
UNCTAD noted that friendshoring and nearshoring continued to gain ground, further reshaping trade flows as geopolitical fragmentation persists. Trade imbalances also remain elevated.
The agency warned that 2026 could bring softer growth, citing slower global economic activity, rising debt burdens, higher trade costs and continued uncertainty.
