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Fluctuations in ocean container freight rates – suddenly going up or down seemingly without logic – could be understood with more clarity using data and market intelligence, according to an analyst of Norway-based Xeneta
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When rates seem to go against market conditions, “you can find explanations and greater understanding through data analysis,” writes Xeneta’s Emily Stausbøll in a September 17 blog
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She said using data analysis and market intelligence “is essential in protecting supply chains and managing freight spend”
Fluctuations in ocean container freight rates – suddenly going up or down seemingly without logic – could be understood with more clarity using data and market intelligence, according to an analyst of Norway-based Xeneta.
When rates seem to go against market conditions, “you can find explanations and greater understanding through data analysis,” writes Xeneta’s Emily Stausbøll in a September 17 blog.
“This is essential in protecting supply chains and managing freight spend,” she said.
She cites the current situation in Transpacific trade from China to the US West Coast where the average spot rates peaked at $5,553 per 40-foot container on June 5 before plunging 68% to $1,779 per FEU by August 31.
As frontloading prompted by announced US tariffs slowed down, further decline would have been expected in September, but average spot rates instead went up 36% to $2,421 on September 17.
READ: Ripple effects of US tariffs spreading across container shipping worldwide
“There doesn’t seem to be an obvious explanation for this spike… until you use data to understand the various sub-plots playing out on the global stage,” Stausbøll said.
She points to the importance of looking at trade relations across regions and how the market corrects itself after spot rates are considered to have dropped “too low”.
Other “sub-plots” to consider given the complexity of global supply chains include local circumstances such as China’s celebration of Golden Week at the start of October, during which factories at one of the world’s biggest manufacturers of goods will be closed.
Given that, many shippers will aim to move as many goods as possible out of China before the national holiday, and the increased demand in ocean container freight could push rates up.
Another factor that could affect rates are the additional port fees that will be imposed by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on China-built ships and China operators starting October.
READ: US moves forward with port fees on China-built ships
“Swapping out China-built vessels may not result in lower capacity or blanked sailings, but it will cause disruption and could contribute to the freight rate spike on the Transpacific,” Stausbøll said.
Market sentiment such as “nervous shippers feeling compelled to pay higher prices to move their containers” also impact rates.
On the other hand, “While a shipper may not be happy about increasing freight rates, understanding why it is happening and how the markets are likely to develop allows them to remain calm and make the right financial and operational decisions.
”This knowledge, Stausbøll said, is also crucial as shippers begin negotiations for new long term ocean container contracts in 2026.
