-
Rates for ocean and air freight this year – though both facing the same geopolitical and global economic volatility – are expected to be influenced by different supply-and-demand factors, according to DHL’s latest industry reports
-
For ocean shipping, the year opens with the spotlight on the Suez Canal
-
The Suez route re-adoption is “nearing” but it is not expected to be seamless and have an immediate positive impact
-
The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme, which now covers 100% of emissions within Europe, is another factor that will affect sea freight rates
-
Developments in the ocean market will have a ripple effect on air cargo in “complex ways”
-
One of the foreseen impacts is a potential decline of sea-air hybrid solutions
-
In the initial months of the year, however, air freight could see a temporary spike in demand as shippers with critical cargo avoid port congestion delays relating to the Suez Canal return
Rates for ocean and air freight this year – though both facing the same geopolitical and global economic volatility – are anticipated to be influenced by different supply-and-demand factors, according to DHL’s latest industry reports.
“2026 is expected to be a year of very different realities for shippers depending on mode, geography and routing,” Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said in a statement. “Shippers that embrace agility — operational and environmental — will weather the storm and emerge stronger in a market defined by resilience and responsibility.”
As the year opens, the ocean shipping industry is looking at a return to the Suez Canal, possibly within the first quarter.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Update Report for January 2026 said route re-adoption is “nearing” as carriers test waters for the safety of seafarers, vessels, and the cargo they are transporting.
CMA CGM and several regional operators are running limited and primarily backhaul services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal into the Mediterranean.
The return to the Suez route, however, is not expected to be seamless and have an immediate positive impact as several months of reshuffling, disruption, and congestion are likely. A stable Suez services would not be in place earlier than mid-2026 at best, according to the DHL report.
“A full-scale return of liner services to the Red Sea would initially be disruptive, with increased risks of port congestion, landside capacity constraints, and short-term cost implications,” said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president for Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“However, once networks stabilize, it will benefit shippers through faster transit times, and the trade is likely to become more competitive on pricing,” Schoon added.
READ: 2026 ocean freight rates seen steady at 2025-H2 range
For capacity, nominal fleet is forecasted to grow by 4% in 2026, down from 7% in 2025, but effective capacity — with reduced by congestion and detours — is expected to rise faster as movement along the Suez Canal resumes.
“Ultimately, the price impact will depend on how successful carriers are in allocating spare capacity. Stability will require operational reshuffling and congestion management for carriers to get their ducks in a row,” DHL said.
The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), which now covers 100% of emissions within Europe, is another factor that will affect rates. This means for shipments into and out of Europe, ETS charges will increase by another 35-50%, making low emission shipping an attractive alternative.
In effect, carriers will procure emission allowances and pass these costs to shippers, adding a significant surcharge to European trades. For high-volume lanes, this could translate into additional costs per shipment.
AIR CARGO
The expected ocean market recalibration will have a ripple effect on air cargo in “complex ways,” based on DHL’s Air Freight Market Update Report for December 2025.
One of the foreseen impacts is a potential decline of sea-air hybrid solutions.
In the first months of the year, however, air freight could see a temporary spike in demand as shippers with critical cargo avoid port congestion delays relating to the Suez Canal return.
Global air cargo demand remained resilient in 2025 with 3% to 5% growth, and it is entering 2026 with demand that is outpacing structurally constrained capacity in several lanes.
READ: Global air cargo demand accelerates to 5.5% growth in Nov 2025
Passenger belly-hold now accounts for 66 percent of total capacity, while dedicated freighter capacity is down 7% year-on-year.
“While carriers are struggling with an excess supply of ships, air cargo capacity had a softer increase at approximately two percent year-on-year in December 2025… The limited freighter availability has thus established a market floor for rates,” the logistics firm said.
For markets, DHL said Asia’s exporters have re-routed to Europe or newer, more developing markets as U.S. demand has stalled.
Regional demand leadership shifted toward Asia Pacific (+11 percent), with Middle East and Africa (+7 percent), and Europe (+3 percent) also expanding, according to the DHL report. North America posted a slight -0.4% contraction, its first in nearly a year.
Technology-related goods led in December 2025, particularly AI component exports, which expanded around 20% year-on-year. South Korea’s semiconductor surge (close to 42 percent) also amplified trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe uplift.
With both the challenges and opportunities for 2026, Frank said the two sectors must plan and strategize for flexibility, taking into consideration the global political and environment.
“In ocean freight, greater capacity is expected to shift negotiating power toward shippers. In air freight, market indicators suggest a more stable environment, with seasonal and event-driven fluctuations,” he said.
