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Average spot rates for sea cargo jumped in October after a downtrend in previous months, but this spike is not expected to push prices up for long-term contracts heading into 2026.
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The increase was recorded on major fronthaul trades from parts of Asia to Europe and the US, according to Xeneta data
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The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 published this month sets out expectations for overall lower long term and short term rates next year as overcapacity continues to plague carriers, and this forecast remains firm despite the increase in mid-October
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“The overcapacity carriers will need to overcome in 2026 should not be forgotten,” Xeneta analyst Emily Stausbøll said
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Average spot rates to northern Europe are down 41% compared to a year ago, while long term rates are down 24%; to the US West Coast, average spot rates are down 60% and long term rates are down 42%
Average spot rates for ocean cargo jumped in October after a downtrend in previous months, but this spike is not expected to push prices up for long-term contracts heading into 2026.
“The October uptick could set alarm bells ringing for shippers hoping for a less painful 2026 – market sentiment is a powerful force – but they would be well served to remain calm and use data to gain a more balanced view of the situation,” Xeneta analyst Emily Stausbøll said in her latest blog published on October 26.
The increase was recorded on major fronthaul trades from parts of Asia to Europe and the US, according to Xeneta data.
Average spot rates to the US West Coast and East Coast are up 38% and 23% compared to October 1 at US$2,138 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) and US$ 3,038 per FEU, respectively.
Into northern Europe and the Mediterranean, average spot rates are up 18% at US$1,968 per FEU and 9% at US$2,338 per FEU, respectively, in the same period.
“On both Transpacific and into Europe, early data suggests spot rates will rise again at the start of November,” Stausbøll said.
However, she cited that even after the mid-October increase, average sea freight spot rates were still US$200 per FEU below the average long term rate.
READ: Leveraging data and intelligence to make sense of ocean freight rates
“Even if spot rates rise further as expected on 1 November, it may only bring parity with long term rates, meaning shippers will still be in a strong position when negotiating new contracts,” she said.
The spot rate increase into the US can be partly attributed to carriers downscaling capacity compared to demand. The capacity in October was the lowest deployed into the US West Coast since US President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariff policy on April 1.
Stausbøll also cited that the spot rate increase comes at a period of the year when shippers are preparing to put forward contract offers.
“Carriers know the importance of market sentiment and do not want to negotiate at a time of falling rates – they will be working as hard as possible to make sure that isn’t the case,” she said, noting that average spot rates in these major sea lanes went up on November 1.
“The spot rate increases have come a little earlier this year in mid-October, and there will be other factors contributing to the spike in addition to carrier capacity management, but the pattern is clear,” she added.
The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 published this month sets out expectations for overall lower long term and short term rates next year as overcapacity continues to plague carriers, and this forecast remains firm.
“The overcapacity carriers will need to overcome in 2026 should not be forgotten purely because they have successfully managed to push short term rates up at this point in time,” the Xeneta analyst said.
Average spot rates to northern Europe are down 41% compared to a year ago, while long term rates are down 24%. To the US West Coast, average spot rates are down 60% and long term rates are down 42%.
“Shippers are going to be looking at securing better contract rates for 2026 than they were when negotiating 2025 rates,” Stausbøll said.
READ: Air cargo demand up in May, but spot rates down – Xeneta
