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Ocean freight market rates dropped 48% year-on-year (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) as reflected in spot rates that are back to 2023 levels on many trades, according to DHL’s October 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update
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Spot rates declined as this year’s volume trend has largely remained flat while capacity continues to expand
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Capacity saw a 7% YoY fleet growth in line with historical average, but while nominal capacity continues to grow, effective capacity is impacted by Suez diversion and port congestion around the world
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Market demand growth stood at 9% YTD until June, but 2025 volumes are sequentially flat into June, driven by significant decline in Asia-North America volumes
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Tariffs have slowed down US-related trade growth, but other trades continue on higher level, indicating a shifting pattern with South East Asian countries as the biggest winner so far
Ocean freight market rates dropped 48% year-on-year (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) as reflected in spot rates that are back to 2023 levels on many trades, according to DHL’s October 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update.
Spot rates declined as this year’s volume trend has largely remained flat while capacity continues to expand.
“Carriers have been slow to manage capacity, but start to act as rates are stabilizing on lower levels,” the report points out.
It also noted that the summer peak season has been short-lived, and pre-holiday peak was weaker than expected.
The seasonal demand uptick with Chinese Golden Week and year-end holidays has been less pronounced than the anticipated volume.
Rates typically drop in September, but the recent decline was stronger than expected as demand stayed behind expectations.
READ: Ocean freight market rates continue to drop – DHL
Meanwhile, the imposition of US port fees on Chinese-built vessels and Chinese vessel owners and operators as of October 14 had no immediate shipper impact as most carriers have already shifted to non-Chinese built vessels.
Capacity saw a 7% YoY fleet growth in line with historical average, but while nominal capacity continues to grow, effective capacity is impacted by Suez diversion and port congestion around the world.
The capacity increase is currently used to meet demand as well as demand spikes, next to partially covering for congestion and Suez diversion.
On port traffic, all regions except North America are reaching or surpassing 2022 congestion levels.
As demand growth is slowing down, carriers have been slow but gradually starting to manage capacity more diligently.
Market demand growth stood at 9% YTD until June, but 2025 volumes are sequentially flat into June, driven by significant decline in Asia-North America volumes. The 2025 growth of 7% is slightly higher than long-term average, and growth rates are expected to hold up in the coming years.
DHL said tariffs have slowed down US-related trade growth, but other trades continue on higher level, indicating that globalization is here to stay, with US tariffs seemingly stimulating a shifting pattern, with South East Asian countries as the biggest winner so far.
Asian exports are surging to other destinations such as Europe, Middle East, India, or Latin America.
READ: EDC flags risks from US tariff on PH goods
Ocean imports into US decreased 2% in the second quarter this year compared with the same period in 2024.
The US has raised tariffs on all imports, with some goods exempted.
“There is no global correlation between tariffs and import volumes, but there is a regional correlation, particularly in Asia – Chinese and Thai import volumes are significantly down as tariffs are highest – Meanwhile, imports are up from other Asian countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia) while tariffs are around global average,” according to the DHL report.
With continuing changes to the US tariff scheme, further volume shifts are likely.
