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Ocean lanes with strong demand such as Asia-Europe have allowed freight market rates (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) to continue recovery from the third quarter low, according to DHL’s December 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update
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Rates increasing 26% but still approximately 37% lower than a year ago
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Asia trades to North and South America are generally flat and general rate increases by carriers are short lived
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Overall, rates are expected to continue to move up ahead of the Chinese New Year in February 2026
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Other factors that will affect rates into 2026 include the European Union Emissions Trading System and a potential return to the Suez Canal route
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On capacity, there was a 7% year-on-year fleet growth
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In terms of demand, a5% year-to-date growth was seen led by Asia-Europe and secondary trades
Ocean lanes with strong demand such as Asia-Europe have allowed freight market rates (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) to continue recovery from the third quarter low, according to DHL’s December 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update.
Rates have been increasing 26% from the July-September levels, but still approximately 37% lower than a year ago.
Asia trades to North and South America, on the other hand, are generally flat and general rate increases by carriers are short lived with fluctuating demand.
READ: Ocean freight rates jump in Oct with demand, capacity management
Overall, rates are expected to continue to move up ahead of the Chinese New Year in February 2026 then subsequently decrease.
“As volumes are picking up, peak expected in January 2026 prior to Chinese New Year; with sustained demand, expectation for tight capacity and increasing rates,” DHL said in its report.
Other factors that will affect rates into 2026 include the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which will cover 100% of emissions by next year, translating to an increase in charges by 35% to 50%.
The EU ETS is the world’s first and largest “cap and trade” market intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from various industries, including maritime transport. The system puts a cap on emissions, requiring polluters to trade – or buy and sell –allowances. The fund will be used for the green transition.
Another major development that could affect rates next year is a return to the Suez Canal route, which is “possibly nearing as carriers test waters and assess safety for seafarers, vessels, cargo.” A re-adoption of the route is seen to cause disruption, reshuffling, and congestion for several months.
A “stable Suez services in place not earlier than mid-2026 is best-case scenario,” according to the DHL report.
On capacity, there was a 7% year-on-year fleet growth to meet demand as of November, but effective supply was reduced by port congestion and Suez detours.
Orderbooks full as carriers aim to replace less fuel-efficient vessels and pursue market share.
In terms of demand, a 5% year-to-date growth was seen led by Asia-Europe and secondary trades. The US-China lane, on the other hand, was slowed by tariffs.
“Overall growth is positive, with summer peak for volumes out of Asia as tariffs do not stop but simply shift global trade,” DHL said, “Asian exports are surging to worldwide destinations – particularly to the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent and Africa.”
