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The military conflict in the Middle East that has seriously affected global oil prices and ship movement is expected to keep ocean freight rates high and volatile for the rest of the year
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This is based on DHL Global Forwarding’s Ocean Freight Market Update for April 2026
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The report, released a day before the two-week ceasefire agreed to by Iran and the United States on April 8, said the direct operational impact of the Middle East crisis to the industry involves several fronts
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Capacity will also remain under pressure despite an expected 3% fleet growth this year
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On the demand side, a 3% year-on-year growth is seen driven by continued volume surge out of Asia, but it could soften as inflation hits economies
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Demand growth is seen on all trade routes except North American imports due to US trade policy
The military conflict in the Middle East that has seriously affected global oil prices and ship movement is expected to keep ocean freight rates high and volatile for the rest of the year, according to DHL Global Forwarding Ocean Freight Market Update for April 2026.
The report, released a day before the two-week ceasefire agreed to by Iran and the United States, said the direct operational impact of the Middle East crisis to the industry includes the closure of Persian Gulf port calls, with over 100 vessels remaining stuck, and cargo is being rerouted through alternative ports that are already congested.
As a consequence, equipment is also getting scarce as the flow of empty containers from the Gulf back to Asia is interrupted.
Another indirect impact is the delay caused by reduced availability of bunker fuel, such as at least 10 days in usual bunker ports like Singapore. Carriers that want to keep within schedule need to bunker in other ports in Asia or along the route, which cost more.
“After recent events, rates (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) have risen significantly and are expected to rise further driven by higher oil prices, supported by sustained growth and prolonged Asia-Europe routing around Africa,” the DHL report said.
At the start of the year, DHL anticipated steady rates carried over from the second half of 2025.
READ: 2026 ocean freight rates seen steady at 2025-H2 range
Capacity and Demand
Capacity will also remain under pressure despite an expected 3% growth this year.
“While nominal fleet growth is expected at 3% in 2026, effective capacity remains reduced as port congestion reaches two-year high and Suez detour continues,” DHL said.
Orderbooks are full as carriers replace vessels and pursue market share, but the impact will only be seen from 2027.
On the demand side, a 3% year-on-year growth is seen driven by continued volume surge out of Asia.
An increase is expected on all trades except North American imports in consideration of US trade policy.
However, global demand could possibly soften if oil prices remain high.
“Inflation is already rising as energy price impact cost of nearly all products,” the DHL report said. “This could lead to a reduction in discretionary consumer spending, which would reduce the demand for products transported via ocean.”
In the long-term, volatility is expected to continue throughout 2026.
