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Global trade this year will be held back by subdued economic growth and reshaped by developments in geopolitics, technology, and national policies and regulations
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The United Nations Trade and Development, in its January 2026 Global Trade Update, listed 10 trends to watch out for when making policy and business decisions
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The top five are: subdued economic and trade growth, reforms in the World Trade Organization, tariffs, realigning value chains, and service-led trade
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The other five are: growing trade among developing countries, going green such as cutting emissions, critical minerals, agricultural goods, and national trade policies
Global trade this year will be held back by subdued economic growth and reshaped by developments in geopolitics, technology, and national policies and regulations, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
In its January 2026 Global Trade Update, the UN agency listed 10 trends to watch out for when making policy and business decisions.
“Global trade in 2026 is at a critical juncture,” the UNCTAD policy insight said. “Geopolitical considerations, economic headwinds, shifting supply chains, digital breakthroughs, and sustainability imperatives are redefining how countries engage in commerce – with especially profound implications for developing nations.”
READ: Global trade to reach record $35T in 2025 despite headwinds
The 10 key trends for 2026 are:
1. Slow global economic and trade growth
UNCTAD estimates global growth will remain subdued at 2.6% in 2026 despite potential gains from technologies such as artificial intelligence.
For developing economies, excluding China, growth is expected to ease slightly to 4.2% this year from 4.3% in 2025. This would mean limits on investment in infrastructure and industrialization.
As such, policy-makers and the private sector must pursue stronger regional trade and diversify to build resilience.
2. The role of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
The WTO’s 14th ministerial conference will take place this year amid rising unilateral tariffs and geopolitical tensions. For developing countries, it is necessary to restore “a functioning dispute settlement system” to protect market access and enforce trade rules.
READ: WTO hikes 2025 global trade forecast after stronger H1, sees slowdown in 2026
3. Tariffs
Global tariffs rose in 2025, driven largely by measures introduced by the US, with manufacturing most affected. UNCTAD said governments are expected to continue using tariffs this year to pursue industrial and strategic objectives.
Such uncertainty over tariff policies discourage investments and disrupt supply chains.
READ: Ripple effects of US tariffs spreading across container shipping worldwide
4. Value chains continue to reconfigure
Nearly two thirds of global trade takes place within value chains that are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, industrial policy and new technologies. Companies are seen to carry on with diversifying suppliers and relocating production closer to key markets to reduce risk.
Countries with strong infrastructure, skills and stable policies are better placed to attract investment.
5. Exports of services growing faster than goods
Services exports now account for 27% of global trade and grew by about 9% in 2025, according to UNCTAD, far outpacing goods. Services also dominate global intermediate inputs, underpinning manufacturing and primary sectors.
Digitally deliverable services drive much of this growth but remain limited in least developed countries. Closing the digital gap is essential for broader participation in services-led trade.
6. Developing countries drive global export growth
Led by Asia’s regional value chains, 57% of developing-country exports now go to other developing markets. Deeper interregional trade can help offset weaker demand in advanced economies and boost resilience.
Overall, South–South merchandise exports rose from about US$0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025.
7. Sustainable trade
One bright spot in international trade is that environmental commitments are moving from ambition to implementation. By late 2025, pledges by 113 countries could cut emissions by about 12% by 2035.
Carbon pricing, clean-energy markets and environmental standards are redefining competitiveness. Developing countries will need access to green finance, technology and support to stay competitive.
8. Critical minerals
Prices of critical minerals – which are vital to technology – have fallen sharply after 2022 as supply expanded faster than demand, easing costs for clean technologies but weakening investment in new mining projects. At the same time, export controls and stockpiling are tightening supply and fragmenting value chains. Managing resource security while sustaining investment will remain a key trade challenge.
9. Food security
Agricultural trade remains vital for food security, with food products accounting for nearly 87% of commodity exports. Many developing countries depend on imports to meet basic needs. Open trade, better access to inputs and climate-resilient farming are essential to stabilize food systems.
10. National trade policies
Environmental, social and security-driven rules are expected to expand further in 2026 even as around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures have been introduced since 2020. This means higher compliance costs, especially for smaller exporters.
UNCTAD said flexible global rules and targeted assistance will be key to ensure inclusive trade.
Given this year’s global trade scenario, UNCTAD said policymakers “face an urgent challenge to navigate this complex landscape while ensuring trade continues to drive inclusive and sustainable growth.”
