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The global supply chain disruption sparked by the US-Israel attack on Iran has for years been one of the biggest feared scenarios of businesses
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Insurance firm Allianz Commercial said such a “black swan” situation of a geopolitics-triggered operations turmoil has been among the top concerns listed in its annual risk survey
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51% of companies see supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage as the two most plausible Black Swan scenarios in the next five years
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In the Philippines, supply chain disruption as part of overall business interruption was ranked the top risk with 54% of respondents marking it their number one concern
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Allianz Research estimates that global GDP losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5 trillion
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The Allianz Risk Barometer for 2026 was participated in by 3,338 risk management experts from almost 100 countries and territories worldwide
The current global supply chain disruption – sparked by the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, with the military hostilities now having spilled over across the Middle East with no signs of immediate de-escalation – has for years been one of the biggest fears of businesses.
Allianz Commercial, the Allianz Group’s unit covering corporate and specialty insurance, said such a “black swan” situation, or unexpected or unforeseen events that are highly disruptive and economically damaging, wherein business operations are seriously impacted by geopolitical conflict has for the past 15 years been among the top concerns listed in its risk survey.
“According to new Allianz Risk Barometer analysis, more than half of the 3,000+ respondents (51%) identify a global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict as the most plausible Black Swan scenario globally which could impact their company in the next five years,” Allianz Commercial said in a news release.
The Allianz Risk Barometer for 2026 was participated in by 3,338 risk management experts from almost 100 countries and territories worldwide.
In Asia Pacific, respondents from China and Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea identified global supply chain paralysis as the biggest likely risk this year.
Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand considered it their second black swan scenario after global internet outage.
In the Philippines, supply chain disruption as part of overall business interruption was ranked the top risk with 54% of respondents marking it their number one concern.
READ: PH Business groups ask gov’t to help minimize Middle East crisis impact
“Although Black Swan events are not seen to be immediately likely, these rare, high-impact scenarios are perceived as increasingly plausible and should be considered by executive boards given their potential consequences,” Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund said.
“Growing interconnectivity across both physical and digital supply chains means disruptions now cascade much faster and can turn into major losses. In today’s fragmented geopolitical environment, companies must double down on resilience and integrated risk management to ride out the next perfect storm,” Lillelund added.
READ: Global logistics face major disruption as Middle East crisis escalates
Globally, corporate boards have had at the top of their agenda the threats of tariffs, trade wars and protectionism as well as disruption to supply chains and shipping caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia / Ukraine.
Based on Allianz Research estimates, the cumulative gross domestic product losses over a two-year horizon triggered by a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could total US$1.5 trillion.
READ: AISL warns of delays, higher costs in sea cargo
Allianz noted that in addition to the huge financial and business costs, such events typically also have long-lasting impact on geopolitical and societal structures.
“Awareness of Black Swans and the need to build resilience has increased in recent years, but businesses can never fully prepare for rare high impact events such as a global outage or an unforeseen climate-related catastrophe. Building organizational agility, fostering a risk-aware culture and developing scalable response plans for a range of scenarios remain the most practical steps to best prepare for Black Swan events,” said Michael Bruch, Global Allianz Commercial head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services.
