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Global maritime trade growth is expected to slow down to 0.5% this year after a modest 2.2% increase in 2025 as shipping faces challenges and shifts, according to the Review of Maritime Transport 2025 published on September 24 by the United Nations Trade and Development
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The UN agency report cited geopolitical tensions, shifting trade patterns, and reconfiguration of shipping lanes as the factors affecting maritime trade
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UNCTAD noted that the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, to be considered for adoption this October, “would set the course toward net-zero by 2050 by introducing a global fuel standard and a carbon pricing mechanism for international shipping”
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The transition must be supported by stabilizing trade policies, investments in green infrastructure, digitalization, faster fleet renewal, and protection of vulnerable economies
Global maritime trade growth is expected to slow down to 0.5% this year after a modest 2.2% increase in 2025 as shipping faces challenges and shifts, according to the Review of Maritime Transport 2025 published on September 24 by the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
“Global shipping, which carries over 80% of world trade, is under immense pressure, facing fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty,” UNCTAD said in a news release.
The UN agency report cited geopolitical tensions, shifting trade patterns, and reconfiguration of shipping lanes as the factors affecting maritime trade.
Ships, for example, now sail longer around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea.
Vessel rerouting pushed up ton-miles or the distance each ton of cargo travels to a record 6% in 2024, nearly three times faster than trade volume growth. As of May this year, tonnage through the Suez Canal was still 70% below 2023 levels, while the Strait of Hormuz – through which 11% of global trade and a third of seaborne oil pass – also faced disruption risks, UNCTAD said.
Freight rates, meanwhile, have been high and volatile. The United States’ tariffs and targeted restrictions on port calls, along with counter-measures and new policies by other countries are adding costs and uncertainty.
READ: Reciprocal tariffs should exclude vulnerable countries – UNCTAD
Shipping for fossil fuels and critical minerals are transitioning, and the competition for supplies and adding value domestically are creating new demands on logistics and transport.
“Freight rate volatility has become the new normal,” UNCTAD said.
Spot and charter rates for container shipping neared COVID-19 peaks by mid-2024 before easing, but stayed far above pre-crisis levels.
Dry bulk freight rates, meanwhile, surged in 2024 on strong coal, grain and fertilizer demand, Red Sea rerouting and limited fleet growth, before softening in 2025 as new capacity entered service.
Tanker markets spiked in June 2025 amid increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz
In terms of environmental impact, the longer routes means higher emissions with Only 8% of the world fleet’s tonnage equipped to use alternative fuels, and ship recycling rates remain low.
Shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by 5% in 2024.
UNCTAD noted that the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, to be considered for adoption this October, “would set the course toward net-zero by 2050 by introducing a global fuel standard and a carbon pricing mechanism for international shipping. Revenues generated could help fund a just transition, including in small island developing states and least developed countries.”
It warns, however, that “decarbonizing maritime transport will entail significant costs” as it will require fleet renewal, port adaptation and alternative fuel infrastructure.
READ: Shipping industry prepares for huge investments in decarbonization
The transition must be supported by stabilizing trade policies, investments in green infrastructure, digitalization, faster fleet renewal, and protection of vulnerable economies.
“Maritime transport has weathered stormy seas before but never so many transitions at once. The sector will adapt. The question is whether adaptation will be managed or chaotic, inclusive or divisive, sustainable or merely survivable,” UNCTAD said.
