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The trade outlook for Asia remains positive, mirroring that of global trade, which is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than the preceding decade despite uncertainties and geopolitical tensions
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India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expected to lead in trade growth between 2024 to 2029, according to the second edition of the DHL Trade Atlas
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South Asia, the Association of South East Asian Nations, and Sub-Saharan Africa are forecasted to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions
The trade outlook for Asia remains positive, mirroring that of global trade, which is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than the preceding decade despite uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, according to the latest report by DHL and the New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business.
Four Asian countries—India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines—are expected to lead in trade growth while the South Asia and Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms of trade growth, according to the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, the second edition of a comprehensive analysis of trade patterns for nearly 200 countries and territories worldwide.
“As we look towards the future of trade in Asia, it’s clear how trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. With the ongoing diversification of supply chains that continues to reshape the commerce landscape, Asia has steadfastly emerged as a key player in the global market,” Ken Lee, chief executive officer of DHL Express Asia Pacific, said in a statement.
Lee added: “However, we must approach this promising outlook with a measured perspective, recognizing the uncertainties and volatility that continue to characterize the global business environment.
As businesses diversify supply chains, it is essential they stay innovative in their strategy and proactive in seeking out new routes to growth.”
The report analyzes trade growth along the dimensions of speed (trade volume growth rate) and scale (absolute increase in trade volume), and projects that between 2024 to 2029, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will rank among the top 30 countries for both speed and scale.
India stands out as in the next five years, it is anticipated to retain its third-place rank (among 170 countries) on the scale dimension with an absolute trade volume growth forecast of $484 billion. India is also seen to jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%.
If the forecast is realized, India will be the location of 6% of the world’s trade growth, behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%). High expectations for India’s future trade growth are reinforced by large new commitments by foreign companies to invest in India’s manufacturing sector, the report noted.
The prospects of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are also bright as they have displayed substantial potential to benefit from supply chain shifts and diversification strategies, according to the report.
The Philippines, with a manufacturing sector focused more on electronics, has seen more limited benefits from supply chain diversification thus far, but is forecast to see a substantial trade growth acceleration, the report said. The Philippines is forecast to leap 114 positions to 15th in the next five years in the speed dimension with a 7% compound annual trade volume growth, and is seen to jump from 68th to 30th place on the scale dimension with an absolute trade volume growth of $87.9 billion.
Vietnam is forecast to rank fifth from sixth on the scale dimension over the next five years with absolute trade volume growth of $271.8 billion. It will, however, decline seven ranks to 29th on the speed dimension but with a higher compound annual trade volume growth rate of 6.5%.
The report said one of the key drivers of Vietnam’s recent trade growth has been the country’s emergence as a favored destination for electronics manufacturing, attracting many companies seeking an alternative location to China.
Indonesia, which has emerged as a favored destination for the metals and chemicals industries, is forecast to hold steady in 12th place on the scale rankings with an absolute trade volume growth of $195 billion, while rising from 33rd to 25th in the speed rankings with 7% trade volume growth rate.
The report noted though that the encouraging forecasts for India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines suggest the importance of investments in physical infrastructure and supportive policy measures required for these countries to achieve their trade growth potential.
“While these countries all have especially favorable trade growth prospects, they have also faced infrastructure and other capacity-related constraints in the past,” the report noted.
In terms of regions, South Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Sub-Saharan Africa are forecasted to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%, 5%, and 5.3%, respectively.
All other regions are forecast to grow at rates of 2% to 4%.
The report also finds that the center of gravity of world trade has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world’s major geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change observed in Asian economies. Between 2000 and 2024, the share of world trade borne by South and Central Asia rose from 2% to 5%. However, a major region like Europe saw its share of world trade decrease from 41% to 36% for the same period.
Despite widespread interest in nearshoring and producing goods closer to customers, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 demonstrates that trade has not become more regionalized overall.
Actual trade flows indicate the opposite trend. In the first nine months of 2024, the average distance traversed for all traded goods reached a record 5,000 kilometers, compared to just over 4,500 kilometers in 2000. This development can be attributed to the fact that Europe and North America have increasingly traded with Asia, as “Factory Asia” becomes central to global production networks, the report said.
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029.
This roughly aligns with gross domestic product growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade.
Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, the report said global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
The report noted that most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and US trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. Also, many of President Donald Trump’s tariff threats may end up different than originally proposed or delayed to prevent a spike in domestic inflation.
Moreover, the US share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9% – enough for US policies to have substantial effects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade.
The report also notes that while trade between blocs of close allies of the US and China declined in 2022 and 2023 relative to trade within these blocs, those declines were minor and did not continue in 2024.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven A. Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management and author of the DHL Trade Atlas.
“While the US could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the US down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade,” Altman added.
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 serves as a clear, up-to-date guide for business leaders, policymakers, and other interested parties, offering essential insights into global trade dynamics.
It complements DHL’s Global Connectedness Report series, which has been published regularly since 2011 and analyzes the broader phenomenon of globalization based on trade in goods and services, as well as international flows of capital, information, and people. DHL last year also launched the DHL Connectedness Tracker, an online platform that tracks the state of globalization and global trade.
READ: Global connectedness remains strong despite series of global shocks, says new DHL study
