Consider a container booked from Manila to Dubai in the final week of August.
The carrier schedule shows a connection through Singapore. The consignee plans delivery around the stated arrival date. The forwarder books the truck, checks the documents, and sends the customer an expected delivery plan.
Then the first sailing is rolled. The container reaches Singapore later than planned and misses its connection. A new vessel is assigned, but the Gulf routing has changed. Discharge may now take place at Khor Fakkan, followed by road movement. The rate is revised. Storage terms are different. The consignee still expects delivery on the original date.
This is the kind of shipment September may produce. The risk is not one major event. It is several smaller changes reaching the same file.
The first pressure point is Manila’s container yard position before the “ber” months.
The Bureau of Customs reported that Manila terminals exported only 90% of the containers brought in during the first seven months of 2026. The ratio was 95% in 2025 and 98% in 2024. Manila International Container Terminal’s export ratio was much lower than Manila South Harbor’s, which means the pressure is not spread evenly across terminals.
If import volumes rise while empties remain in the system, truck turnaround can slow and vessel arrivals can place added pressure on the yard. A booking confirmed today may face a different gate or loading position by the time the container reaches the terminal.
The second pressure is blank sailings. Drewry counted 49 cancelled sailings on the main East-West trades between August 17 and September 20. That represents 7% of planned sailings. Most cancellations were on the eastbound transpacific route, followed by Asia-Europe and Mediterranean services.
Manila does not need to be omitted for a Philippine shipment to suffer. A skipped sailing or late vessel at Singapore, Hong Kong, Kaohsiung, or Port Klang can break the connection and add several days to the final transit.
The third pressure is the Gulf. Major UAE ports may be operating, but that does not mean every carrier is accepting every cargo type on the original route. Carriers have changed booking rules for dry, reefer, DG, OOG, and other cargo. They have also changed discharge points, landbridge arrangements, storage conditions, and surcharges.
Maersk, for example, has published emergency freight charges for certain Gulf shipments and an additional charge for containers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. These are carrier-specific terms. They should not be treated as standard market charges.
A quote to Dubai must now state the actual discharge port, place of delivery, road leg, customs responsibility, free storage, empty-return point, and charges not included in the ocean rate.
The fourth pressure is weather. A storm does not need to hit Manila directly. Port restrictions in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, or northern Luzon can delay a vessel before it reaches the Philippines. The result may appear days later as bunching, a changed berth window, or a missed connection. Heavy rain around Manila can also cut truck availability and slow terminal or depot movement.
The fifth pressure is the National Single Window rollout. The platform is already live in a limited form, with BIR and the National Tobacco Administration among the first agencies onboarded. Wider agency onboarding was planned from August, starting with bodies linked to agricultural trade.
During the transition, old and new processes may operate together. A submission receipt does not always mean the permit is approved, visible to Customs, or ready for cargo release.
The common mistake is to leave each risk with a separate team. Operations checks the vessel. Customs checks the permit. Transport checks the truck. Finance checks the charges. Meanwhile, the customer continues working with an arrival date that no longer reflects the shipment.
September requires one shipment view.
Whenever the route, vessel, permit, or charge changes, the whole delivery plan must be checked again.
Amit Maheshwari is the CEO of Softlink Global. He built Logi-Sys, a freight platform now used in over 50 countries. With 30 years in the industry, he focuses on fixing operational bottlenecks through software. He writes “IT in Logistics” for PortCalls Asia to cut through the tech hype and address the reality of moving cargo.
PREVIOUS COLUMN: Red Sea May Reopen But Forwarders Should Not Rush Back to Old Promises
