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Global air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September (8.6% for international operations), while capacity grew 2.7%, according to the International Air Transport Association
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Asia-Pacific airlines posted 8.6% growth in demand, with Asia–North America the strongest trade lane
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Jet fuel prices were 103.4% higher than a year earlier, and IATA said yields have not kept pace
Global air cargo demand accelerated in September, rising 7.7% from a year earlier, the International Air Transport Association said in a statement. Demand on international operations grew 8.6%. Capacity grew more slowly, up 2.7% overall and 3.3% internationally.
The measure used is cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK) for demand and available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK) for capacity. September’s growth is faster than August’s 4.4%, which PortCalls reported at the end of September.
“Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president for sustainability and chief economist. She said stronger global trade and manufacturing gave a supportive backdrop. She added that AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific.
Fuel cost is the pressure point
Owens Thomsen said the challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, she said, and yields have not kept pace. “There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging,” she said.
IATA data show jet fuel prices rose 17.5% month on month in September and were 103.4% higher than a year earlier. In August, PortCalls reported, they were 79.2% higher than a year earlier.
IATA noted several other factors:
- Global trade rose 3.6% year on year in August, the 42nd consecutive month of year-on-year expansion.
- Global manufacturing output activity pointed upward in August. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose 0.7 points to 53.8, and the New Export Orders Index rose 0.5 points to 51.9. Both are at five-year highs and remain supportive of air cargo demand, IATA said.
Regional performance
| Region | Demand growth | Capacity change |
|---|---|---|
| North America | +11.8% (strongest) | +0.8% |
| Asia-Pacific | +8.6% | +4.9% |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | +6.7% | +7.6% |
| Africa | +4.7% | -1.2% |
| Europe | +4.5% | -1.6% |
| Middle East | +3.8% (weakest) | +7.0% |
Asia-Pacific carriers saw their demand grow faster than their capacity, a gap of 3.7 percentage points. In North America, demand grew 11.8% on only 0.8% more capacity.
Trade lanes
Performance stayed mixed across major trade lanes. Asia–North America had the strongest growth, followed by within Asia, Europe–North America and Europe–Asia. Middle East-linked corridors remained under pressure, with traffic declining on the Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia routes.
Background
IATA’s earlier readings show how the year has moved. In April, demand rose 4% while Middle Eastern carriers’ demand fell 18.2%, and jet fuel was 121.1% above its level a year earlier. In August, demand rose 4.4% while capacity fell 0.1%. September’s 7.7% is the fastest of these readings.
