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The Department of Agriculture expects Philippine rice imports in 2026 at 3.6 to 3.8 million metric tons
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Domestic palay output forecast is 20.3 million MT, near record levels despite weather disruptions
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Agriculture secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the imports will meet demand without depressing farmgate prices
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The Bureau of Plant Industry will process clearances for 500,000 metric tons before year-end, including 50,000 for government agencies
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Tariffs on imported rice will rise to 20% from 15% once importation resumes
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To ease cash-flow pressures, the DA will waive the usual 10% downpayment requirement for clearances
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Imports restricted to 17 designated ports nationwide
The Department of Agriculture (DA) expects rice imports in 2026 to fall below 4 million metric tons (MT) as domestic production is projected to reach near-record levels.
Agriculture secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., in a press release, said import volumes next year will likely range between 3.6 million and 3.8 million MT, a level he said would be sufficient to meet national demand without putting downward pressure on farmgate palay prices.
At a consultative meeting with rice importers on December 15, Tiu Laurel said the government is working to “better calibrate import volumes to keep rice affordable for consumers” while ensuring fair returns for farmers, a balance he noted has the support of industry players.
The DA forecast palay output at 20.3 million metric tons next year, close to the original target for 2025 that was affected by flooding and other weather disturbances.
The Philippines set a record harvest of 20.06 million metric tons in 2023.
Ahead of the lifting of the four-month import ban at year-end, the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) will process clearances for about 500,000 metric tons, including 50,000 metric tons reserved for government agencies.
READ: PH rice import ban to be extended to end-2025
All shipments must arrive by mid-February to prevent imported rice from weighing on palay prices during the summer harvest.
When importation resumes, tariffs will rise to 20% from 15%, in line with an agreement among economic managers of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
To ease cash-flow pressures, the DA will waive the usual 10% downpayment requirement for clearances.
“The tariff increase reflects several realities—the recent depreciation of the peso and the likelihood of higher global prices once the Philippines reenters the market,” Tiu Laurel said.
Imports during the January-February window will be limited to 17 ports nationwide: Manila, Batangas, Tacloban, Bacolod, Iligan, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Zamboanga, Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Tagbilaran, Dumaguete, Subic, Calbayog, General Santos, and Tabaco.
Laurel also urged importers to diversify sources.
“Instead of relying almost entirely on Vietnam, we encourage importers to consider Cambodia, Myanmar, and other non-traditional suppliers,” he said.
Rice imports surged to a record 4.8 million metric tons in 2024, 33% higher than 2023, as traders moved early amid concerns over weaker harvests from El Niño and La Niña. The BPI estimates total imports this year at 3.5 million metric tons, sharply lower due to the import freeze.
Laurel noted that the additional 1.2 million tons imported in 2024, combined with heavy arrivals in early 2025, dragged down palay prices and squeezed farmer incomes.
“The US Department of Agriculture has forecast Philippine rice imports at 5.5 million metric tons for marketing year 2025–2026. However, with the import ban already in place and the DA committed to tightly managing volumes to support farmgate prices, that projection is increasingly unlikely to be realized,” the agency said in a news release.
