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Container ship capacity on major East-West trade lanes is at historic highs in October and November 2026, according to analyst Sea-Intelligence
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Weekly capacity on Asia–North America West Coast is forecast to reach an unprecedented 400,000 TEU in November
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Sea-Intelligence blames vessel bunching from Asian port congestion and delays, not a surge in demand
Container shipping is running with unprecedented capacity on all major East-West trade lanes, according to Sea-Intelligence. In a release dated Oct. 29, the Singapore- and Copenhagen-based research firm said capacity rose sharply in October and November. It normally tapers after the Golden Week holiday in China as fourth-quarter demand softens. Sea-Intelligence said this breaks from trends seen from 2012 to 2025.
Sea-Intelligence’s weekly average figures are:
- Asia–North Europe: above 350,000 TEU in October and November
- Asia–Mediterranean: above 260,000 TEU in October and November
- Asia–North America West Coast: nearly 393,000 TEU in October, with November forecast to reach an unprecedented 400,000 TEU
- Asia–North America East Coast: in line with past years through August, then the highest of any year in October and November
Why: bunching, not demand
Sea-Intelligence said capacity on both Asia–Europe lanes was already elevated through 2026 because of the Red Sea crisis, which required extra ships to maintain weekly departures. The October-November jump came on top of that baseline.
It attributed the latest surge mainly to severe vessel bunching. Ongoing port congestion and schedule unreliability in Asia delayed ships scheduled for the third quarter, pushing their sailings into October and November. This, it said, artificially inflated deployed capacity. The release does not mention blank sailings, and it gives no percentage changes.
PortCalls reported in September that congestion at Asian ports was driving global vessel delays. Sea-Intelligence data showed global schedule reliability at 56.4% in July, the steepest monthly drop since January 2021. Shanghai’s on-time rate was 21%, the lowest in 14 years of data outside the pandemic years. Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy warned then that the backlog would likely spread and cause new delays on major head-haul lanes.
In March, the Association of International Shipping Lines (AISL) warned of delays and higher costs. Major carriers were returning to the longer Cape of Good Hope route, which adds 10 to 14 days of transit time.
