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The container shipping industry will take at least three months to recover from the Middle East disruption if the signed peace deal and ongoing 60-day negotiations between the US and Iran hold
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As of early morning June 22 (Philippine time), international media organizations reported Iran Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei saying that among the first items tackled was safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and that “a mechanism” has been set up
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Data from market intelligence firm Xeneta shows spot rates had gone up 192% on Asia-US trades and 106% into North Europe since the strait was closed on February 28
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In a best-case scenario, Xeneta said, spot rates will keep rising for at least another four weeks before the market peaks, and ocean supply chain networks will see recovery by mid-September 2026
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A ‘new normal’ is seen emerging with carriers setting up more resilience into their networks, leaning towards a higher proportion of regional feeder services relative to major East-West fronthaul calls
The container shipping industry will take at least three months to recover from the Middle East disruption if the signed peace deal and ongoing 60-day negotiations between the United States and Iran hold.
“This agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a Norway-based ocean and air freight intelligence platform, in a statement on June 19, before the first day of negotiations finally pushed through on June 21.
As of early morning June 22 (Philippine time), international media organizations reported that Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iran Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said among the first items tackled was safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and that “a mechanism” has been set up.
When the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, one of the first moves taken by the Iranian government, through its Revolutionary Guards, was to close the strait, a critical passageway where a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through.
READ: Global logistics face major disruption as Middle East crisis escalates
Articles 4 and 5 of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding address the US naval blockade and Iran’s obligations not to disrupt traffic, but the agreement sets a 30-day window for minesweeping operations, which may take longer. Normal vessel movements could not resume until clearing operations are completed.
Disruption in numbers
Xeneta data shows 10% of the global container shipping fleet had been affected by the blockade, pushing spot rates up 192% on Asia-US trades and 106% into North Europe.
In a best-case scenario, Xeneta said, spot rates will keep rising for at least another four weeks before the market peaks, and ocean supply chain networks will see recovery by mid-September 2026.
“Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10% of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiraling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight,” Sand said.
According to Xeneta, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf before the crisis, with a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) – around 10% of the global container fleet. Only 11 services remain active due to the blockade — 10 operating intra-Arabian Gulf and one dedicated Iran-China service — representing just 74,000 TEU of active capacity in the region.
Those pre-conflict services had a total of 488 vessels, which has now dropped to 18. The other 470 ships have been operationally diverted or displaced across the global network.
“The ripple effects of this disruption are visible in spot rates across all major trade lanes – even those that do not ordinarily transit Strait of Hormuz, such as the Transpacific to US West Coast,” Xeneta said.
To demonstrate, the rate from the Far East to the US West Coast stood at $5,493/ forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) in recent weeks from $1,879/FEU on February 28, while the Far East to North Europe rate jumped to $4,572/FEU from $2,220/FEU.
“Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases in July and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for weeks in advance. Shippers who manage to get their boxes on board are paying a premium to do so,” Sand said.
Pressure from fuel surcharges is seen to ease soon with the drop in global oil prices over the past week.
Meanwhile, Xeneta said the recovery process is seen to go through three phases, with the initial step involving the extraction of ships and crew that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since March.
READ: WSC, IMO stress freedom of navigation in Hormuz with US-Iran peace deal
The next phase would be the return of feeder and regional services into Arabian Gulf ports.
“These smaller services carry lower risk if disrupted and will form the foundation for reactivating intra-regional trade. As feeder connectivity is restored, intra-Arabian Gulf services — which have fallen from 21 pre-crisis to 10 today — can begin to expand again,” Xeneta said.
The third stage will then be the return of major long-haul services on the Asia-Europe and Asia-North America trades.
“Carriers had to act fast when the conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz closed in February, but the return will be far more cautious,” Sand said.
Meanwhile, A ‘new normal’ is seen emerging with carriers setting up more resilience into their networks, leaning towards a higher proportion of regional feeder services.
“The geo-political situation will remain fragile for the foreseeable future and both carriers and shippers will want to protect against the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz first time round,” Sand said. “Increasing use of transshipment services into the Gulf creates additional transit time, but it insulates the long-haul network from future disruption.”
