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Global air cargo demand remained strong in August 2026 with volumes up 6% year on year, keeping freight rates at elevated levels, according to Xeneta
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Global air cargo spot rates remained 24% higher YoY in August at an average of US$3.13 per kilogram
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The increase in spot rate, however, has been easing after a 28% rise in July, 38% in June, and the 41% peak in May
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E-commerce and low-value exports from China dropped due mainly to the removal of the de minimis by the European Union starting July, but this is expected to be just a knee-jerk reaction and will be short-term
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Rates continued to be set by supply and demand rather than fuel price
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Global air cargo market growth is on course for a 4% growth in 2026
Global air cargo demand remained strong in August 2026 with volumes up 6% year on year (YoY), higher than the 5% growth the previous month, keeping freight rates at elevated levels, according to Xeneta.
“Air cargo’s ‘hot summer’ of 2026 continued last month after the +5% year-on-year rise in volumes recorded in July, underlining the market’s resilience through the traditionally quieter summer months,” the market intelligence and benchmarking platform said in news release.
Global air cargo spot rates (valid for up to one month) remained 24% higher YoY in August at an average of US$3.13 per kilogram. However, the increase in spot rate has been easing after 28% rise in July, 38% in June, and the 41% peak in May.
“How you see the market depends on where you sit,” said Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw. “Rates are easing their way down month-on-month, and the gap to last year’s levels is narrowing, perfectly in line with what we expected, and airlines will be hoping to hold on at the current level until the busier season starts.”
“But shippers still feel they’re owed and want to push rate levels down. If you were buying something that is +24% more expensive now than a year ago, and that has a big effect on budgets, you wouldn’t be happy. But we are not picking up signals on a big uptick in demand in the coming months, and we think air freight rates will go down further, just not as quickly as shippers want to see. It remains a seller’s market,” he added.
For now, shippers continue to buy more capacity on the short-term market as they take a wait-and-see stance on whether the month-on-month downward trend in rates will accelerate, which would mean more budgetary relief. But with demand growth continuing to outpace supply and jet fuel prices rising again in recent weeks, the descent is being taken in small steps.
Capacity in August was flat year-on-year, leaving Xeneta’s dynamic load factor – its measurement of capacity utilization based on the volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity – three percentage points higher versus August 2025 at 61%.
End of EU de minimis
The clearest structural shift in the data is driven by a decline in e-commerce, particularly shipments from China with low-value and e-commerce exports falling 11% YoY in July 2026, according to Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group analysis of China Customs data.
Exports to Europe dropped the most, down 25% YoY, attributed mainly as “a knee-jerk reaction to the EU’s (European Union) removal of its €150 duty-free threshold for low value goods starting July 1 and the introduction of a flat €3 per item customs duty.
READ: E-commerce sellers to EU must now pay €3 duty for under €150 packages
This negative market reaction is likely to be short-lived, said van de Wouw, citing the United States experience. When the US removed its de minimis threshold in 2025, China’s e-commerce exports to the country also saw an initial dip but have since recovered, growing 23% YoY in July 2026, albeit from a lowered base.
“It’s way too early to know what the longer-term impact will be on e-commerce volumes from China-Europe, but a positive longer-term indicator, in any case, is how quickly China-US shipments recovered,” van de Wouw said.
“Right now, I think a lot of e-commerce shippers may be incurring the extra cost in their product while they work out the best way to sell it: whether to make their product more expensive or to separate customs duty as a handling fee. But consumers are not going to stop buying on the big Chinese e-commerce platforms,” he added. “The price differential of goods (from China) is also so much in many cases versus products made in Europe, that consumers are unlikely to change their buying patterns.”
Nonetheless, the impact of lower volumes, however short-term they may be, is already visible in the freight market, according to Xeneta.
China to Western Europe spot rates averaged $3.85 per kg in August, down a further 6% month-on-month following July’s steep 22% decline. Northeast Asia to Europe spot rates fell 3% month-on-month, with Southeast Asia to Europe down 7% to $4.20 per kg.
Elsewhere, corridor-level rates continued to be set by supply and demand rather than fuel prices.
Spot rates into the Middle East remained far above late-February pre-conflict levels, up 100% from South Asia, 66% from Europe, 21% from Northeast Asia, and 20% from Southeast Asia. On the transpacific, shipments relating to artificial intelligence (AI) continue to underpin the market, with Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America spot rates increasing 36% and 34% above late-February levels, respectively. Northeast Asia to North America averaged $5.76 per kg in August, up 2% month-on-month.
It was a different story on transatlantic lanes, where abundant summer belly capacity kept Europe to North America spot rates down 25%, below late-February levels, although the corridor showed early signs of firming with rates up +2% month-on-month in August.
Van de Wouw said while there remains a lot of noise in the market and some industry observers looking to hang trends on just a few days’ data, he believes global air cargo market growth remains on course for a 4% growth in 2026 – better than expected at the end of 2025 when forecasters were giving their predictions for the New Year.
“The market has been performing at a relatively stable level for several months. Yes, of course, shippers want to pay less for capacity, but versus some of the major disruptions we have seen, a period of relative calm should be celebrated, and the resilience of air freight appreciated,” he said.
READ: Leveraging data and intelligence to make sense of ocean freight rates
