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Ocean freight market rates jumped 39% (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) in October, reversing months of decline this year, although still at lower levels compared to a year ago, according to DHL’s November 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update
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The reversal was attributed to strong demand and carriers improving their capacity management
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Capacity increased with a 7% year-on-year fleet growth, although lower than historical average due to port congestion and the continued Suez detour
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Capacity growth rates are expected to hold up in the coming years as global trade has shown resilience against headwinds
Ocean freight market rates jumped 39% (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) in October, reversing months of decline this year, although still at lower levels compared to a year ago, according to DHL’s November 2025 Ocean Freight Market Update.
The reversal – which started in the second half of October – was attributed to two factors: strong demand as global trade continues to be buoyant despite the US tariff impact, and to carriers improving their capacity management.
READ: Ocean freight market rates drop to 2023 levels as capacity continues to expand
“Strong volume and growth development unstopped by tariffs, while rates are increasing again due to carriers’ recent diligence in capacity management,” the DHL report said.
Year-to-date market demand grew 9%, driven by surging volumes out of Asia. The US tariffs have slowed down imports from China but other trade lanes maintained growth.
“Demand surge over the summer as Asian exports have been growing to destinations worldwide, including US-bound cargo growth from non-Chinese, Asian origins,” the DHL report said.
It noted the “China + X” strategy that has been ongoing even before the Trump administration imposed its tariff policy, wherein traders are diversifying sources away from China. This trend has been accelerating faster as the US-China tariff war lingers.
Capacity also increased with a 7% year-on-year fleet growth. However, this is lower than the historical average used to meet demand and demand spikes due to port congestion and the continued Suez detour.
“While nominal capacity continues to grow, effective capacity is impacted by Suez detour – expected to last well into 2026 – and port congestion around the world,” DHL said.
The continued port congestion was driven by strong exports out of Asia into the region and to worldwide destinations. All regions except North America were reaching or surpassing 2022 congestion levels. DHL said congestion in Asia is improving but is worsening in Europe.
Looking ahead, capacity growth rates are expected to hold up in the coming years as global trade has shown resilience against headwinds.
“Globalization is here to stay,” DHL said, with shifting patterns and many secondary trades growing double-digit percentages.
