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Air and ocean freight markets are seeing tight capacity, congestion at major hubs, and increasing vessel utilization as demand spikes earlier than the usual start of the industry’s peak season, according to DHL’s latest reports
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Demand drivers are the usual holiday inventory replenishment, increase in new energy exports such as solar-related products and electric vehicles, and importers in the United States rushing to bring cargo in ahead of tariffs uncertainty
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As freight spaces tighten, prices are increasing for both air and sea transport
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Semiconductors and AI-related products are also in high demand while other manufacturers, industrial exporters, and e-commerce shippers continue to compete for space
Air and ocean freight markets are seeing tight capacity, congestion at major hubs, and increasing vessel utilization as demand spikes earlier than the usual start of the industry’s peak season, according to DHL’s latest reports.
“Traditionally, freight demand builds gradually in the second half of the year as retailers replenish inventories ahead of major shopping events and manufacturers prepare for year-end demand. Capacity tightens, rates rise, and competition for space intensifies,” Niki Frank, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, said in a statement. “This year, those familiar pressures are emerging earlier—and for reasons that extend far beyond traditional seasonal cycles. An intense and prolonged peak season is already underway due to the convergence of several demand drivers.”
Apart from the usual holiday inventory replenishment, the demand drivers now include an increase in new energy exports such as solar-related products and electric vehicles, and importers in the United States rushing to bring cargo in ahead of tariffs uncertainty.
DHL said while tariffs are no longer the main factor affecting the freight market, these still have an impact on shipping activities.
The U.S. 10% Section 122 tariff is expiring on July 24 July, creating uncertainty into procurement and sourcing decisions.
“Importers know what current tariffs look like. What they do not know is what comes next—or how additional costs might be introduced from future measures. Some shippers are responding by moving cargo earlier, preferring the certainty of today’s tariff environment over the uncertainty of tomorrow’s,” DHL said.
This means added upward pressure on ocean freight rates that are already at elevated levels. In air freight, it becomes an additional planning variable for a market that is also under high rates.
At the same time, exports continue to flow despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and shifting trade relationships.
“Individually, each of these developments would be manageable,” said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president for Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific. “Collectively, they are creating a market where demand is growing faster than what capacity can comfortably absorb.”
As freight spaces tighten, prices are increasing. Ocean freight rates have risen 84% year-on-year, while demand continues to outpace available capacity. DHL’s June Air Freight State of the Industry notes that global air freight spot rates also rose to US$3.75 per kilogram in week 25 of 2026, remaining 47% above last year’s levels, reflecting volatility, capacity uncertainty, high jet fuel prices, and risk surcharges.
Solar, EV demand
The freight markets are also seeing an unprecedented rise in “New Energy” supply chains, which are mostly coming from China.
The demand has been partly driven by rising energy costs due to higher oil prices prompted by the Middle East crisis.
READ: Fuel volatility main driver of air, ocean freight markets—DHL
For freight markets, this matters because New Energy cargo does not follow the same calendar as traditional retail demand, DHL said.
“Batteries, energy storage systems, solar equipment, and industrial energy infrastructure move according to project timelines, investment cycles, and deployment schedules. Rather than replacing existing freight demand, they are creating an additional layer of cargo that remains active throughout the year,” it said.
Congested sea and air ports
Demand growth has been particularly strong on Asia-origin trade lanes, with year-to-date intra-Asia volumes up 10%, Asia–Europe up 12%, and Asia–Oceania up 17%.
That trend aligns with a broader conclusion from the 2026 DHL’s Global Connectedness Report: globalization is adapting rather than retreating. Supply chains are becoming more diversified, but goods continue moving across borders at scale.
READ: Globalization holds up against geopolitics, tariff chaos—DHL report
And such growing demand amid limited capacity has prompted an increasingly visible impact on ports.
DHL’s Ocean Freight Market Update shows more than 3.7 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) tied up in congested ports globally in late June, with congestion levels returning to heights last seen during the post-pandemic period.
Despite the expected global container fleet growth of 4% in 2026, effective capacity remains constrained by congestion and ongoing network disruptions, DHL said.
Similarly, DHL’s Air Freight State of the Industry report show that while airline networks continue recovering and capacity continues to grow, space availability remains tight on many trade route.
Airlines are concentrating capacity on the highest-demand corridors while aircraft delivery delays and a global order backlog of more than 18,000 aircraft continue limiting supply growth.
Pressure on capacity is also largely due to strong demand in semiconductor and advanced manufacturing supply chains as well as AI-related demand. At the same time, manufacturers, industrial exporters, and e-commerce shippers continue competing for available space.
“When available capacity is concentrated on higher-demand corridors, price increases become less of a surprise and more of a reflection of how tight networks are being used,” said Fabio Weiss, senior vice president, Air Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
The ocean and air freight markets are being shaped by what DHL calls “a convergence of forces” – holiday inventory, tariff uncertainty, growing demand for new energy and technology products, combined with capacity constraints and congestion.
“Together, they help explain why peak season have arrived early—and why the competition for freight capacity may remain intense well beyond the summer months,” Frank said.
