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Air freight rates in the second quarter 2026 hit their highest in almost four years as the Middle East conflict disrupted carrier operations and pushed fuel prices up, according to Ti Insights
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Upward pressure is expected to continue if the regional tension persists
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Headhaul rates averaged $3.7 per kilogram in May, up 35.85% year-on-year
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Backhaul rates, on the other hand, reached $2.9/kg in the same month, reflecting 25.44% year-on-year growth
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Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year-on-year in April to $3.34/kg, the highest level since October 2022
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Middle Eastern airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways have started restoring operations in May, but even if conditions stabilize, a rapid return to normal is unlikely as airlines will remain cautious
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In the immediate future, shippers should expect tight space, fewer routings, longer transit times, and a higher share of capacity reserved for priority cargo until the Gulf hubs and surrounding airspace return to normal operations
Air freight rates in the second quarter of 2026 hit their highest in almost four years as the Middle East conflict disrupted carrier operations and pushed fuel prices up, and the upward pressure is expected to continue if the regional tension persists, according to Ti Insights.
In its Air Freight Rate Tracker report for Q2 2026, the logistics and supply chain market research firm said the rate surge was driven primarily by capacity disruptions rather than organic demand growth.
“Rates surged dramatically in March and April as airspace closures grounded Gulf carriers and eliminated critical transit capacity, but have shown early signs of stabilisation in May as a ceasefire brought partial airspace reopening,” it said.
The Middle East conflict, which has largely been a war in the airspace with the use of weaponized drones, was triggered on February 28 when the US and Israel attacked Iran. Ceasefires have been declared but a deal that will categorically end the armed attacks in the region has yet to be reached.
Headhaul rates averaged $3.7 per kilogram (/kg) in May, up 35.85% year-on-year and 26.56% quarter-on-quarter, according to the Ti Insights report. Backhaul rates, on the other hand, reached $2.9/kg in the same month, reflecting 25.44% year-on-year growth and 17.90% quarter-on- quarter increases.
Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year-on-year in April to $3.34/kg, the highest level since October 2022, according to Freightos data. The sharp quarterly increase reflects supply-side shocks rather than demand growth.
“The most dramatic increases occurred on routes departing Dubai, where rates tripled to $5.44/kg,” the report states.
The Gulf airspace closures eliminated a substantial share of Asia-Europe capacity. With the drop in capacity, carriers also started implementing risk surcharges. Further, airlines were forced to reroute flights through alternative corridors, increasing flight times and reducing payload efficiency.
Demand and capacity
The Ti Insights report, citing data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), noted a mixed demand. There was a strong 11.2% year-on-year growth in February 2026, reflecting the Chinese Lunar New Year impact, but March saw a 4.8% contraction as the conflict took hold.
Capacity remains the binding constraint, with global air cargo capacity down 4.7% year- on-year in April, based on IATA data. This was driven by Gulf hub closures.
Middle Eastern airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways have started restoring operations in May, but even if conditions stabilize, “a rapid return to normal is unlikely as airlines will be cautious about reinstating routes through the Middle East, given the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing geopolitical risk,” Ti Insights said.
READ: Air cargo movement in the Gulf resumes, but limited & volatile
ACI Asia-Pacific reported that nine major Middle East airports collectively lost approximately 620,000 tonnes of cargo across March and April 2026, representing a 52% year-on-year decline. March cargo volumes at these airports fell 59% year-on-year to 259,000 tonnes.
In April, there was a partial recovery at 312,000 tonnes, but volumes remained 43% below prior-year levels.
Demand remained structurally supported by e-commerce, high-value manufacturing, and trade diversification, but realizing this demand became contingent on available capacity rather than underlying market appetite.
READ: April air cargo demand rises 4% despite Middle East turbulence — IATA
The Middle East situation has been the defining factor in air freight rates in the second quarter, and that “shock is landing on a market that had been softening seasonally.”
Ti Insights said overall demand is holding up and the macro picture points to moderate upside rather than a boom, with volumes are being supported by China’s export diversification into multiple end markets. Trade policies have also redirected some flows and reshaped transpacific patterns.
“The result is resilient global demand,” the report said, “but with growth increasingly dependent on where shipments are going, not just how much is moving.”
In the immediate future, shippers should expect tight space, fewer routings, longer transit times, and a higher share of capacity reserved for priority cargo until the Gulf hubs and surrounding airspace return to normal operations.
READ: Global express, parcels market projected to grow 7.9% by 2029 – Ti Insight
