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Global container vessel capacity, currently at 34 million TEU, is expected to grow to 40 million TEU by the second quarter of 2028 and hit 50 million by 2030
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Sea-Intelligence said this is an unprecedented supply growth in the industry
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Retiring vessels will not make a dent in the projected supply growth
Global container vessel capacity, currently at 34 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), is expected to grow to 40 million TEU by the second quarter of 2028 and hit 50 million by 2030, an unprecedented supply growth, according to Sea-Intelligence.
In its latest weekly spotlight summary released on November 8, Sea-Intelligence said this projected fleet expansion will not be affected by retiring vessels.
“Even if carriers were to scrap at record levels of the past, it would not make a dent in the supply,” the Singapore- and Copenhagen-based data analytics and advisory firm said.
Earlier this month, Sea-Intelligence reported that container shipping is running with unprecedented capacity on all major East-West trade lanes.
READ: Record ship capacity on Asia trade lanes in Oct, Nov
Market intelligence and benchmarking platform Xeneta also released this week a report with a similar forecast for 2027, saying that it sees supply outrunning demand next year as the global container fleet is expected to grow 6.8%, with 2.9m TEU of new capacity arriving against 0.5m TEU scrapped.
READ: Global container rates seen to soften in 2027: Xeneta Outlook
Meanwhile, Sea-Intelligence – citing data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (UNCTAD PLSCI) – also said shipping lines are “executing a strategy of upwards consolidation, concentrating their highest connectivity growth into primary and secondary gateways” rather than undertaking broad diversification for network resilience.
READ: Global shipping lines shift away from vessel sharing deals
