-
Elevated ocean freight rates are expected to go further up due to strong demand growth and continued high oil prices as the Gulf crisis remains unresolved, according to DHL’s latest market update
-
For the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, emergency bunker surcharges are widely in place and further rate increases are seen through Q2
-
The bunker adjustment factor may “fade” in Q3 if oil prices do not increase further than the current high level
-
Global container demand is up 7% year to date, driven primarily by continued export momentum out of Asia to most regions except North America
-
Capacity remains constrained due to ongoing Suez diversions and port congestion
Ocean freight rates, already at elevated levels, are expected to go further up due to strong demand growth and continued high oil prices as the Gulf crisis remains unresolved, according to DHL’s latest market update.
For the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), emergency bunker surcharges are widely in place and further rate increases are seen through the second quarter, DHL said in its Ocean Freight Market Update for May 2026.
“As per SCFIS futures, rates are expected to increase by more than 50% from today’s level as demand is expected to pick up,” the report said.
The spike in bunker fuel prices in March was “unheard of in last decade and beyond,” DHL noted.
All carriers have implemented emergency bunker surcharges in recent weeks, with many shippers also looking into monthly bunker fuel updates instead. The bunker adjustment factor may “fade” in the third quarter if oil prices do not increase further than the current high level.
READ: Ocean freight rates seen to stay high, volatile until end-2026, according to DHL
Global container demand is up 7% year to date, driven primarily by continued export momentum out of Asia to most regions except North America.
Growth is also visible across most trade lanes, but European export volumes remain weak.
The overall uptrend in demand is seen to continue except for North American imports, which are affected by the US government’s trade policy.
Capacity, meanwhile, remains constrained due to ongoing Suez diversions and port congestion. Around Around three million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs) are tied up in congested ports at any given time, impacting reliability, according to the report.
Nominal capacity is expected to grow by around 3% year-on-year, below the long-term average of about 6%. Actual capacity remains reduced as port congestion reaches two-year high and Suez detour continues.
Operational and geopolitical impacts also persist, with the most significant disruptions linked to Middle East re‑routing, inland constraints and equipment shortages. These affect transit times, particularly into the Middle East-North Africa-Turkey region and Indian subcontinent.
READ: Fuel volatility main driver of air, ocean freight markets—DHL
