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The reefer freight market will remain relatively steady in the second quarter but is already feeling the pressure from supply chain disruptions and higher fuel prices brought on by the Middle East conflict
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Rates already showing upward volatility
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On the supply side, overcapacity persists with global fleet and reefer plug capacity staying elevated
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Demand is resilient with seasonal agricultural exports moving mainly from South America as the second quarter marks the start of key export period
The reefer freight market is feeling the pressure from supply chain disruptions and higher fuel prices brought on by the Middle East conflict, with rates indicating upward volatility in the second quarter after a steady start in the first three months.
In its latest Ocean Reefer Market Update, DHL said rates are still “broadly stable, with limited downside due to elevated fuel costs, emergency surcharges, and regulatory impacts such as the expanded EU ETS (European Union Emissions Trading System) scope.”
Rates for Asia-Europe trades have seen an increase.
Rate volatility in all regions is still being driven by the Middle East situation as well as uncertainty around any return to Suez routings.
Under the Drewry Global Reefer Container Freight Rate Index, price levels declined 3% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year (YoY) as supply is still higher than demand with global fleet and reefer plug capacity staying elevated, reinforcing underlying overcapacity.
READ: Reefer freight rates seen steady in Q1 2026—DHL
However, network disruption and longer transit period with rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope continue to affect vessel deployment. Equipment imbalances during seasonal peaks also persist due to trade flow dynamics and repositioning challenges in key export regions.
“Rates are expected to remain broadly stable with a slight downward bias, depending on Suez normalization and geopolitical developments,” the DHL report said.
In contrast, under the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, rates have risen 35% year-on-year, which is about 26% higher than average rates from December 20915 to February 2026. Price levels are expected to increase further in the second quarter as emergency surcharges have yet to be fully implemented and volatility persists in the coming weeks.
Demand, meanwhile, is resilient with seasonal agricultural exports moving mainly from South America as the second quarter marks the start of key export period.
“Volumes are driven mainly by Latin American perishables such as bananas, citrus, and avocados, while Northern Hemisphere harvests begin to build,” the DHL report said.
Reefer slot availability in the region remains tight during peak weeks, with fuel surcharges adding cost pressure.
The Life Science & Healthcare sector is also on steady flow, with continuing limited modal shift from air to ocean.
