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The Strait of Hormuz is reopening as part of a peace deal between the United States and Iran as announced on Sunday, but vessel movements are not expected to normalize immediately through the critical waterway
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Shipping companies take caution and await clearer terms on the agreement
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Official signing ceremony for the agreement will be held on June 19, Friday, in Switzerland
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Oil prices dropped early Monday but global oil supply and reserves are not seen to return to pre-conflict levels until the first half of 2027, assuming the peace deal holds and Hormuz remains open for toll-free passage
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Industry analysts say carriers will not be rushing back through the strait as they take full caution
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As recent as Friday, June 12, the BIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, INTERCARGOand INTERTANKO issued a joint statement unanimously condemning the recent attacks on seafarers and commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz
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The industry groups cited International Maritime Organization data showing 46 verified attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, with 14 confirmed seafarer fatalities
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening as part of a peace deal between the United States and Iran as announced on Sunday, but vessel movements are not expected to normalize immediately through the critical waterway where about a fifth of global oil supply pass through, as shipping companies await clearer terms on the agreement.
Online tracking site shipfinder.com shows that as of noon of June 15, Philippine time, there were 3,029 vessels in the Persian Gulf, and the previous day’s transits through Hormuz were “constrained and selective” with just one vessel entering and five exiting.
“These transits primarily involved smaller vessels such as the chemical tanker ALFONSO (Barbados flag, UAE operator), the oil tanker RICH STARRY (Malawi flag), and various cargo and supply support vessels, suggesting that large, internationally flagged crude carriers are either employing alternative routing, utilizing US-escorted passages, or remain in port,” shipfinder reports.
“Reports of commercial vessels actively avoiding traditional Iranian-designated channels in favor of ‘safe routes’ along the Omani coast further underscore the operational adjustments,” it added.
Expert analysis, as reported by foreign publications and international news agencies, indicate that oil supply and reserves in the Gulf will not be returning to pre-March 2026 levels until the first half of 2027, assuming that the peace deal takes effect and holds.
Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif of Pakistan – which led in brokering the peace talks along with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye , and Qatar – first announced the agreement on social media platform X.
Sharif said an official signing ceremony for the agreement will be held on June 19, Friday, in Switzerland.
US President Donald Trump soon after also posted on his Truth social media account, saying the agreement allows for toll-free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been practically closed since the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.
“Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade,” Trump wrote. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
Iran’s deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also confirmed the deal on Sunday, which he said will immediately end hostilities between Iran and the US.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, in their respective posts on social media, cheered the deal and offered support in the setting up measures moving forward to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz will be permanently reopened.
Shipping industry
For the private sector, especially the shipping industry whose assets have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months, resumption of operations will be taken with utmost caution.
“It’s going to take time for people to feel comfortable and for insurance to be in place … particularly to get people on the ground to restart some of these assets,” Daniel Evans, global head of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, said as reported by the Associated Press.
Oil prices dropped at the beginning of Monday with Brent crude, the international standard, down $3.45 at $83.89 per barrel while the US benchmark crude oil decreased by $4.03 to $80.85 per barrel.
Before February 28, average global prices were about $70 per barrel.
READ: UNCTAD warns vs Hormuz blockade impact on global trade
Shipping companies and insurers indicated that “they would be in no rush to return,” according to Lloyd’s List, the premier publication and intelligence service for the shipping and maritime industry.
READ: Global shipping org BIMCO says Trump’s insurance offer unclear
As recent as Friday, June 12, the BIMCO, the International Chamber of Shipping, INTERCARGO and INTERTANKO issued a joint statement unanimously condemning the recent attacks on seafarers and commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
The industry groups cited International Maritime Organization data showing 46 verified attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, with 14 confirmed seafarer fatalities.
READ: IMO chief alarmed over Hormuz attacks as oil route risks escalate
