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Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% year-on-year in March 2026, reflecting a challenging operating environment shaped by Middle East disruption and seasonal trends
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Capacity likewise decreased by 4.7%, reflecting both weaker underlying demand and pronounced regional reallocation effects
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Regional performance remained uneven, with modest growth across Africa, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean unable to compensate for severe declines in the Middle East
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Both cargo type segments contracted during the month, although dedicated freighters demonstrated greater resilience than passenger belly demand
Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% year-on-year in March 2026, reflecting a challenging operating environment shaped by Middle East disruption and seasonal trends, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Industry-wide cargo-tonne-kilometers declined by 4.8% year-on-year in March, which was shaped by overlapping Chinese New Year distortions, escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and higher fuel costs, all of which disrupted established traffic patterns, IATA said in its March air cargo market analysis.
International cargo demand, in particular, contracted by 5.5% year-on-year. IATA noted that global trade disruption, elevated costs, and rerouting inefficiencies weighed disproportionately on cross-border freight, particularly on corridors linked to Gulf connectivity.
“The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP [gross domestic product] projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said.
READ: Air cargo demand jumps 11.2% in Feb – IATA
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers, likewise decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025, reflecting both weaker underlying demand and pronounced regional reallocation effects, including the unwinding of last year’s elevated capacity base in North America and the sharp contraction in Middle East operations during March 2026.
Capacity reductions were concentrated among Middle East and African carriers, where airspace closures, operational uncertainty, and reduced schedules constrained network availability.
For international operations, capacity declined 6.8% year-on-year.
Regional performance remained uneven, with modest growth across Africa, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean unable to compensate for severe declines in the Middle East.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 5.4% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in March, with capacity increasing 5% year-on-year.
European carriers also saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand and a 4.2% growth in capacity, while Latin American and Caribbean carriers also posted a 1.8% increase in demand and 5.1% more capacity.
African airlines recorded the strongest expansion in demand by 7%, supported by bypass traffic for air cargo. Capacity, however, decreased by 4.6% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw a 1.2% year-on-year decrease in air cargo demand, with capacity declining by 1.1% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers, meanwhile, recorded a 54.3% year-on-year decrease in demand, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity likewise dropped 52.4% year-on-year.
Air cargo performance diverged across major trade lanes in March. Africa-Asia led growth followed by Asia–Europe, with intra-Asia also holding strong on regional trade. In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors were severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Both cargo type segments contracted during the month, although dedicated freighters demonstrated greater resilience than passenger belly demand.
Freighter volumes edged lower by 0.9% year-on-year, while belly cargo fell 12.1%, reflecting the heavier exposure of passenger-linked freight to schedule reductions and disrupted connecting traffic.
Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6% year-on-year, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins. Cargo yields rose alongside energy costs, increasing 13.6% year-on-year and 13.6% month-on-month to reach US$2.75 per kilogram.
